China's government is pursuing a misguided and perhaps futile course in its efforts to raise the country's fertility rate, one of the world's lowest, analysts say.
China ended its one-child policy in 2016, increasing the cap to two children and then to three in 2021. But these and other measures at both national and local levels have yet to yield results.
The country's fertility rate, or number of births expected per woman, dropped again in 2023, well below the replacement rate of 2.1 needed to sustain the population of 1.4 billion. This trend and China's aging workforce have raised concerns about the long-term performance of the world's second-largest economy.
Yi Fuxian, an obstetrician at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who studies demographics, cited the "barrel theory," in which the capacity of a barrel is limited by its shortest plank, to explain the challenge facing Beijing.
"Only by making up all the short boards can the fertility rate be raised. Yet the Chinese authorities apparently have no idea which are the shortest boards," he told Newsweek, naming China's relatively low household income as a share of GDP and the declining number of new marriages as two of these boards.
Marriage numbers, which are closely associated with births in East Asia's more traditional societies, are sharply declining.
Official statistics show there were only 4.75 million marriages registered in China in the third quarter of 2023, a 16.6 percent decrease from the same period in 2023.
Yi said the Chinese government is taking the same failed approach on reversing these trends as Japan, a super-aged society with its own looming population crisis that saw its fertility rate fall to 1.20 in 2023.
Newsweek reached out to the Chinese Foreign Ministry with a written request for comment.
Austin Schumacher, assistant professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, noted that China's share of global live births was 8 percent in 2021 but is projected to decline to 3 percent by 2100.
"Current studies on various pro-natal policies have only shown modest increases, which our projections show will not be sufficient to reverse population decline," he told CNBC. "However, with new innovations and research into improving current endeavors and developing new ones, it could be possible."
For young people, however, having children has become increasingly difficult.
Harry Murphy Cruise, an economist at Moody's Analytics, pointed to the "mental hangover" of China's decades-long one-child policy and a slowing economy as factors behind younger generations decisions to delay starting a family or opt out entirely.
"It is an incredibly difficult task, and there is no silver bullet to lifting fertility rates," he told CNBC.
To get to the bottom of why the number of births continues to plummet, the Chinese government recently launched a survey covering 30,000 participants across 1,500 communities in 150 counties to identify key factors influencing attitudes toward parenthood.
Local officials have reportedly even begun calling women of childbearing age to inquire about their childbirth plans.
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