Hurricane Rafael's path has shifted slightly to the west, with the storm now taking aim at southern Texas after it enters the Gulf of Mexico later this week.
Rafael became a hurricane on Tuesday night, and National Hurricane Center (NHC) meteorologists anticipate that the storm will continue to strengthen into major hurricane status before it makes landfall in Cuba later on Wednesday. As of the most recent NHC update issued on Wednesday morning, Rafael had maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, making it a Category 2 hurricane. It will weaken as it moves over Cuba but emerge in the Gulf maintaining hurricane status.
The storm has sparked a slew of hurricane and tropical storm warnings, including in the Florida Keys as it passes nearby.
Originally, the NHC forecasts showed Rafael taking aim at Louisiana, though forecasts were unclear if it would retain tropical storm strength or greater upon its arrival.
Now, the path has shifted, directing the storm toward Texas after trekking further across the Gulf of Mexico. Experts anticipate Rafael will maintain hurricane strength through Saturday morning. After Saturday, its forecast is unclear, though meteorologists anticipate it will have weakened to a tropical storm.
Though a new potential destination is on the storm's horizon, Rafael's extended journey across the Gulf could contribute to its weakening.
Hurdles in Hurricane Rafael's Path
NHC spokesperson Erica Grow Cei told Newsweek that Gulf of Mexico waters are cooling below the 80-degree threshold for hurricane strengthening, adding that Rafael won't undergo rapid intensification as it travels across the Gulf like Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton did, contributing to the storms' devastation across Florida and the U.S. South.
Wind shear in the area also is expected to be strong, which could contribute to dissolving the storm.
Chance of Historic Landfall
If Rafael remains organized long enough to make landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast, it would be a first. A tropical storm or hurricane has never made landfall in November in Louisiana, where Rafael originally appeared headed, or Texas, given that strong winds and cool waters tend to dissolve any storms before they hit this time of year.
The NHC warned that it's too soon to know if Rafael will have U.S. impact aside from the Florida Keys, though experts urged people living on the Gulf Coast to remain vigilant.
Expected Rafael Impacts
Hurricane Rafael will bring "life-threatening" impacts to Cuba. Storm surge as high as 14 feet in southern Cuba is expected, with heavy rainfall as high as 12 inches across higher terrain in Cuba.
The storm also is expected to spawn some tornadoes, which could hit the Florida Keys and the far southwest parts of the Florida peninsula through Wednesday night.
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