After a smaller-scale World Series last year between the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks, the 2024 World Series features two of the biggest heavy hitters in MLB.
The New York Yankees are taking on the Los Angeles Dodgers in what should be an instant classic series between two behemoth franchises.
The Yankees went through a rut in June, but outside of that, they were among the best teams in baseball, while the Dodgers had the best record in MLB in the regular season.
Both of these teams are riddled with star talent across the board, headlined, of course, by both projected MVP winners Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani.
This World Series is full of intriguing storylines, and for this article we will be providing the best MLB player prop picks for Game 1 of the World Series.
Max Muncy Home Run (+380) DraftKings
Muncy had a relatively quiet regular season that was marred by an oblique injury that kept him out for months, but he has really come on in this postseason.
Dating back to Game 4 of the Padres series, Muncy has led the Dodgers in barrel rate (19.05%), HardHit rate (50%) and OPS (1.489). He also has a .333 ISO rate in this stretch after posting an ISO rate of .262 in the regular season.
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Overall, he has hit two home runs in this stretch, and he has seven different hits with an exit velocity of 100-plus MPH, not including another that had an exit velocity of exactly 99.99 mph.
With the rate he has been crushing the ball lately, he makes for a great pick to hit a home run, and there are no concerns with Gerrit Cole on the mound for the Yankees, either.
Cole is not a pitcher who we would classify as a home run pitcher, but he has not been his dominant self this season, and that has continued into the playoffs.
His playoff ERA of 3.31 does not look bad, but he has an xFIP of 5.39 and SIERA of 5.02 in this three starts, which suggests he has gotten lucky to have an ERA that low.
Look for Muncy to stay hot in this one.
Max Muncy home run (+380): 0.25 Units
Jack Flaherty o2.5 Earned Runs (-110) DK
Flaherty is another pitcher who has really struggled in this postseason, but, unlike Cole, he has not had any luck helping limit his ERA.
He has three starts in these playoffs, and he has gotten rocked in two of them, with an overall ERA of 7.04.
His expected numbers also look bad, so this is not a bad luck situation. Flaherty's FIP is 6.23, his xFIP is 5.86 and his SIERA is 5.51.
Flaherty did have a solid regular season, but his stuff+, which is a FanGraphs stat that measures a pitcher's "stuff", shows a below-average pitcher overall.
Essentially, this stat looks at the velocity, movement and spin rate of each pitch type individually, and grades that pitch. The only pitch that was above-average was Flaherty's knuckle-curve, and that was by the slimmest of margins.
A grade of 100 is considered average, with anything above 100 considered above-average, and Flaherty's knuckle-curve was graded at 101 -- the lowest possible grade while still being above-average.
Overall, Flaherty's stuff+ was graded a 94, which was the 18th-lowest of all qualified starting pitchers.
While the Yankees lineup has done a lot of its damage late in games against bullpens this postseason, they should be able to get to Flaherty.
Jack Flaherty o2.5 Earned Runs (-110):
Juan Soto Home Run (+400) FanDuel
Along with Muncy, we like another lefty, Juan Soto, to go yard on Friday night. Soto gets the benefit of going up against a struggling pitcher in Flaherty, as previously detailed.
One stat intentionally omitted in the previous write-up was Flaherty's post season HR/9 of 1.76, which would have been the worst HR/9 of all qualified pitchers in the regular season.
Since Oct. 9, which includes the last two games of the Royals series and all five games of the Guardians series, Soto has an absurd 24 percent barrel rate and 72.73 percent HardHit rate, with an average exit velocity of 101.4 and a .400 ISO rate.
In these seven games, Soto has hit 14 (!) balls with an exit velocity above 100 mph, including four in the last game alone. Soto had five at-bats in N.Y.'s series-clinching Game 5 win over the Guardians on October 19, and here is how four of them went:
- 101 mph off the bat
- 107.9 mph exit velocity (single)
- 109.7 mph, 402-foot home run
- 114.3 mph exit velocity (double)
While Giancarlo Stanton has stolen the headlines, Soto has been arguably just as hot, and he's getting significantly better odds to hit a home run in this game.
Juan Soto home run (+400): 0.25 Units
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