MAGA firebrand congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna is at risk of being ousted in Florida, with a new poll showing her tied with her opponent.
The poll, conducted by St. Pete Polls on October 20, showed that the race in Florida's 13th Congressional District is neck and neck, with incumbent Luna and her Democratic challenger Whitney Fox both polling at 45.9 percent. Meanwhile, 8.2 percent are undecided, the poll shows.
The survey also shows that Fox is winning 15 percent of Republicans in the state, and that independents favor Fox 48 percent to 41 percent, a trend that is common in Florida politics. Additionally, more men support Fox in the poll (48 percent to 45 percent) while women favor Luna (49 percent to 43 percent).
The poll, which surveyed 905 likely voters and had a 3.3-percentage-point margin of error, is a major blow to the Republicans in Florida. Two years ago, Luna defeated her opponent Eric Lynn by more than 8 percentage points. Like Fox, Lynn was a moderate Democrat. However, unlike Fox, Lynn ran during a midterm election year with lower voter turnout, at a time when Republicans were outperforming across the state. This year, the Republicans hold a more than 8-percentage-point voter registration advantage, according to the most recent L2 voter data.
The latest poll comes after Luna praised President Joe Biden's response to Hurricane Milton last week, which hit her district hard. "I have obviously been very critical of President Biden in the past, but I will say that him stepping in and taking control of the situation to assist for the right reasons was very honestly kind of shocking for me," Luna told Fox News. The month before, Luna came under fire for voting against emergency funding for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
"Whitney Fox is surging because Floridians are looking for real leadership, not someone like Anna Paulina Luna, who voted against disaster relief funds," Phil Gardner, spokesperson for the Blue Dog PAC, which is supporting Fox, told Florida Politics. "Whether it's banning abortion, repealing the Affordable Care Act, or selling out to corporate developers and insurance companies, Anna Paulina Luna has spent her time focusing on culture wars and partisan politics instead of delivering for Florida. Floridians deserve a Member of Congress who shows up, not one who hides behind cable TV hits and endless tweets."
But while the latest poll showed the two candidates tied, others have shown Luna in the lead—albeit by a smaller margin than 2020. For example, a WPA Intelligence poll, conducted between August 28 and 29 among 400 likely voters, put Luna 5 points ahead. The poll had a 4.9 percent margin of error.
Meanwhile, the latest poll showed that Fox's previous lead of 4 points from the previous poll by St. Pete had been wiped out in the state since the end of August, while Cook Political Report lists the district as R+6, which takes into account past voting trends and nonpartisan voters, who make up nearly 29 percent of the district electorate.
Nonetheless, the latest poll could be a worrying sign for the Republicans in Florida, where polls have shown a closely contested presidential race this year. According to FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver's trackers, Trump currently leads Harris by 6 points. In 2020, Trump won Florida by 3 points. Meanwhile, the St. Pete Polls survey showed that Trump was trailing Harris by 3 points in CD 13, on 46.9 percent to her 49.9 percent. Only 2 percent of CD 13 voters remain undecided in the presidential race.
However, while the Democrats are ahead in CD 13, it is unlikely the party will win the state overall, with online betting platform Polymarket showing that Harris has a 36 percent chance of winning Florida, to Trump's 64 percent chance.
Newsweek has contacted the Luna and Fox campaigns for comment.
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