A new poll shows Republican Governor Brian Kemp with an early lead over Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff in Georgia's 2026 Senate election, expected to be one of the most competitive races of the midterms.
Newsweek reached out to Ossoff's campaign and Kemp's political team via email for comment.
Why It Matters
Republicans won control of the U.S. Senate last year, and Democrats will be looking to retake ground by winning seats in states like Maine and North Carolina next year. Georgia presents Republicans with perhaps their best opportunity to flip a seat currently held by Democrats.
A popular governor, Kemp is viewed as Republicans' strongest potential recruit for the race. Georgia is a key battleground that only narrowly backed President-elect Donald Trump last year, and it's likely to stay competitive in the foreseeable future.
What To Know
The WPA Intelligence/Club for Growth poll showed Kemp with a 6-point lead over Ossoff. However, the incumbent senator held a more significant lead over other potential rivals, Politico reported Thursday afternoon.
Fourteen percent of voters were undecided, according to Politico. The poll surveyed 500 likely Senate voters conducted in mid-January. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
While the poll points to a close race, it's still early—there are nearly two years before the first votes will be cast in the midterms. Democrats are hopeful there will be a "blue wave" in 2026 if Trump's approval drops after the first few months of his presidency, as most presidents typically see a temporary honeymoon period after their election.
Kemp distanced himself from Trump after 2020, when he was critical of the president-elect's alleged efforts at overturning Georgia's election results when Biden carried the state—though he did endorse Trump last year. Political experts point to his Trump criticism as helping bolster his popularity in a deeply divided state.
He hasn't said whether he plans to run in the Senate race and has been floated as a possible 2028 presidential candidate.
Other polls haven't been conducted on the race, but recent surveys suggest Kemp and Ossoff enjoy popularity among Georgia voters.
A Quinnipiac poll from last year found 55 percent of Georgia voters approving of Kemp, while only 31 percent disapproved of his performance. Meanwhile, 47 percent said they approved of Ossoff, with 32 percent disapproving.
Fourteen percent didn't say whether they approved of Kemp, while 22 percent didn't offer an opinion of Ossoff. That poll surveyed 1,203 Georgia voters from May 30 to June 3, 2024, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
Kemp was reelected in 2022, defeating Democrat Stacey Abrams by over seven points (53 percent to 46 percent). Ossoff, meanwhile, won his Senate election in 2020, unseating former GOP Senator David Perdue with just a 1.2-point margin of victory.
How Red Was Georgia In 2024?
Trump flipped Georgia back to Republicans in 2024, winning the Peach State by about two points (50.7 percent to 48.5 percent). Biden carried it four years earlier by less than half a percentage point (49.47 percent to 49.24 percent).
While Georgia shifted back to Republicans, there were still some signs for Democrats to stay optimistic about the state in the future. In 2020, it voted about 4.3 points to the right of the country. Last year, it only voted 0.7 points to the right of the country overall.
That change was primarily due to Atlanta's suburbs continuing to move leftward, defying national trends. Kemp's key to victory in 2026 will be to hold down solid margins in places like Cobb and Gwinnett counties, former Republican strongholds that have shifted to Democrats.
Who Else May Run In Key Georgia Senate Race?
The new poll found other Republicans would start off the campaign in a weaker position than Kemp.
Ossoff led Representative Buddy Carter by 13 points, Representative Mike Collins by 10 points, Insurance Commissioner John King by 16 points, Representative Rich McCormick by 11 points and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger by 14 points.
What People Are Saying
Republican consultant Brian Robinson to Atlanta news station WAGA in December when asked if Kemp could run for president: "Absolutely, I think he certainly has built a profile that puts him in that conversation. His favorability ratings in a purple state are something that national onlookers and big donors are going to keep an eye on."
Strategist Fred Hicks to The Hill: "It's not clear what Georgia is right now other than a battleground state, an expensive battleground state, and one that will serve, I think, as a sort of an opening bell, if you will, for 2028."
What Happens Next
The Georgia 2026 Senate election is set to be held on November 3, 2026. Potential candidates will likely start announcing their campaigns this year.
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