President-elect Donald Trump has promised to end the Russia-Ukraine war in one day, all without presenting a detailed plan of action.
Trump's foreign policy has been a core component of his successful bid for the White House, as he repeatedly pledged to end the war in Ukraine and the Middle East.
"They're dying, Russians and Ukrainians. I want them to stop dying. And I'll have that done—I'll have that done in 24 hours," Trump said in 2023 at a CNN town hall.
Trump, who won the popular vote for the first time in three attempts, said Vladimir Putin wouldn't have invaded Ukraine if he "respected" the incumbent American president.
"If we had a real president, a president that knew — that was respected by Putin ... he would have never invaded Ukraine," Trump said during the first presidential debate against Joe Biden.
In an interview with Right Side Broadcasting Network in February, the former U.S. president said that the Russian invasion "would never had started" if he were still at the White House instead of Joe Biden.
Kurt Volker, who was involved in negotiations with Ukraine and Vladimir Putin between 2017 and 2019 under the first Trump administration, told the Kyiv Independent that the Republican will "make a phone call to Putin as quickly as possible" and tell the Russian president that "he needs to stop the war."
Newsweek asked the artificial intelligence chatbot ChatGPT using the prompt: "Can Donald Trump end the war in Ukraine and explain how he will do this while preserving Ukrainian sovereignty?"
Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed he could end the war in Ukraine "within 24 hours" if re-elected, though he hasn't provided specific details on his approach. He's suggested that he could bring both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the negotiating table through personal diplomacy.
"Here's a closer look at the elements that might factor into his approach, along with some challenges in achieving both peace and Ukrainian sovereignty.
Direct Negotiations with Putin and Zelensky
"Trump's key claim centers on leveraging his relationships with world leaders, specifically Putin. He has said he would mediate a settlement by pressuring both sides to negotiate, presumably using his connections and influence to get both leaders to agree to terms they might otherwise reject.
"Both sides currently have high stakes: Ukraine seeks to reclaim its territory, while Russia aims to secure strategic areas like Crimea and the Donbas region. Putin's goals for Russia in Ukraine extend beyond what any previous administration's diplomacy could sway, as they involve long-term control and influence in the region. Without substantial concessions or assurances, Putin may not agree to terms that would preserve Ukrainian sovereignty.
Conditional Aid to Ukraine and Sanctions on Russia
"He has hinted at leveraging U.S. military and economic aid to Ukraine as a bargaining tool. By potentially reducing U.S. support or conditioning it on Ukraine's willingness to negotiate, he could push Zelensky toward concessions. Trump may also suggest modifying sanctions on Russia to incentivize their withdrawal.
"A reduction in U.S. aid would weaken Ukraine's negotiating position. Currently, U.S. and NATO support gives Ukraine the means to defend its territory and resist Russian advances. Reducing aid might pressure Ukraine to negotiate but could also make it more vulnerable, leaving sovereignty compromised. Furthermore, a willingness to alter sanctions could embolden Putin if he perceives a weakening of U.S. resolve.
Proposed Neutral Status for Ukraine
"Trump might revive ideas like a 'neutral' status for Ukraine, similar to the status of Finland during the Cold War. This would mean Ukraine would not join NATO, addressing one of Putin's stated concerns about NATO expansion near Russia's borders.
"Ukraine has shown a strong desire for NATO membership to protect itself from future aggression, and neutrality may be seen as a concession to Russian demands. This could undermine Ukraine's sovereignty, especially if it means limiting its foreign policy decisions or military alliances in ways favorable to Moscow.
Partition or Demilitarization Agreements
"Some analysts speculate Trump could propose partitioning contested territories, especially Crimea and parts of the Donbas, or creating demilitarized zones. He might attempt to mediate agreements that involve Russia retaining control over certain areas while withdrawing from others.
"Such agreements would directly compromise Ukrainian sovereignty, as Ukraine's official stance is to restore full control over all occupied territories, including Crimea. Partitioning Ukraine would set a precedent against national sovereignty, a position unlikely to be acceptable to Ukraine or much of the international community.
Key Obstacles to Achieving Peace While Preserving Sovereignty
"Russia has already annexed parts of Ukraine, and it's unlikely to reverse this position without a fight. Ukraine, meanwhile, is committed to reclaiming its occupied lands.
"Trump's approach could face pushback from NATO allies and the EU, as any plan that seems to compromise Ukrainian sovereignty or security may be opposed by other Western nations.
"Any major shift in U.S. support to Ukraine would require Congressional approval, which could be difficult given bipartisan support for Ukraine's defense.
"In summary, while Trump may attempt a combination of direct diplomacy, conditional aid, and negotiation on Ukraine's NATO ambitions, each of these tactics poses risks to Ukraine's sovereignty. Without clear guarantees for Ukrainian autonomy and security, preserving sovereignty while ending the conflict remains challenging, even with assertive diplomatic intervention."
Elina Beketova, Democracy Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), told Newsweek that Ukrainians hope that the second Trump administration will help Ukraine negotiate from a "position of strength" in any potential peace talks.
"It's hard to say now what decisions Donald Trump will make in the near future. Everyone is waiting for the statements and further developments.
"Ukraine hopes that the new administration can help repel Russian aggression and withdraw Russian troops from Ukraine's sovereign territory.
"In my conversations with people from Kyiv, they hope the war will end not by freezing the current frontline and ceding territory to Russia, but by driving Russian soldiers out of Ukraine's sovereign land. Additionally, we are talking about millions of people in Russian-controlled territories who want to remain Ukrainians and preserve their identities.
Matthew Savill, Military Sciences Director at the defense and security think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said in a statement: "A Trump victory creates considerable uncertainty for both Ukraine and its other international partners. President Zelenskyy has already congratulated Trump and is no doubt hoping that the latter's desire to be seen as a 'winner' means that he throws his weight behind supporting Ukraine.
"But his desire for a deal—and probably a quick one—does not bode well for sustained US support, especially with the current pressure on Ukraine. Trump will have to contend with Congress, but there is significant skepticism about Ukraine amongst many Republicans.
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