College Football Week 11 Best Bets: Can Ole Miss Upset Georgia?

College Football Week 11 Best Bets

Below, we're throwing out our college football Week 11 best bets, beginning with Saturday afternoon's SEC showdown between No. 3* Georgia and No. 16 Ole Miss in Oxford, Mississippi.

We also have our eyes on Mississippi State vs. Tennessee and Colorado vs. Texas Tech today.

*Note: All team rankings the rest of this season will come from the latest College Football Playoff poll.

How to Bet Georgia (-2.5) vs. Ole Miss

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN+)

The last time we broke down a Georgia game, we didn't give coach Kirby Smart's Dawgs nearly enough respect in their road clash with Texas back in Week 8. The Bulldogs won that one 30-15 as 4.5-point underdogs.

This time, though, we're trusting UGA (7-1, 5-1 SEC) to take care of business on the road against a tough opponent. Coach Lane Kiffin's Rebels have been a high-flying machine against most -- key word: most -- foes the last couple years, but this offense just hasn't been the same against elite defenses like Georgia's.

A year ago, Ole Miss traveled to Athens and lost 52-17 to Georgia. Last year's team also was shut down by Alabama in a 24-10 loss on the road.

This year, the Rebels (7-2, 3-2 SEC) get the Dawgs at The Grove. But based on how Kiffin's team fared against Kentucky and LSU this year -- losing to the Wildcats 20-17 at home and falling 29-26 in overtime to the Tigers in Baton Rouge -- it's going to take more than a rocking home crowd for Jaxson Dart and the Ole Miss offense to outscore Georgia.

Few offenses are better at shredding average or worse defenses, but we're going to believe that Ole Miss is capable of beating a squad of Georgia's caliber when we see it.

The Bulldogs, who have not lost to a team besides Alabama since way back in 2020 (!), might not cruise. For one thing, they are not nearly as dominant as they've been in recent years, and Carson Beck is much more mistake-prone than his predecessors under center in Athens.

That being said, I don't see a team that bullied Texas on the road in a night game losing to Ole Miss, whose best win the last two years was last season's Peach Bowl triumph over Penn State.

Take Georgia to pull this one out, even if it comes down to the wire, and also consider a small play on Georgia winning by a touchdown on the alt spread.

Georgia vs. Ole Miss best bets:

• Georgia -2.5 (-110 at bet365) 1 unit
• Georgia alt line -6.5 (+136 at FanDuel) 0.5 units

How to Bet Mississippi State vs. Tennessee (-24.5)

Kickoff: 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)

We're not sure whether No. 7 Tennessee (7-1, 4-1 SEC) will win this one by enough to cover the massive spread against a struggling Mississippi State squad (2-7, 0-5 SEC) that has lost all five of its SEC games this year by at least 10 points.

What we do feel strongly about is this game's over/under, which is over 60 points. On one hand, that total makes sense given A) the big numbers Tennessee put on the board early this season and B) the Bulldogs' defensive issues (MSU is allowing nearly 35 points per game).

But since conference play started, Tennessee has grinded out one low-scoring victory after another, even in games it's controlled from start to finish. In fact, since the Vols blew out Kent State 71-0 back in September, below are the point totals in this team's last five games:

• at Oklahoma, Sept. 21: 40 (W, 25-15)
• at Arkansas, Oct. 5: 33 (L, 19-14)
• vs. Florida, Oct. 12: 40 (W, 23-17 in OT)
• vs. Alabama, Oct. 19: 41 (W, 24-17)
• vs. Kentucky, Nov. 2: 46 (W, 28-18)

Though it would have sounded crazy to say this back in September, Tennessee is relying on lights-out defensive play and just enough scoring from its offense each week to stay in the SEC title hunt.

Even if you expect Tennessee to score 30 or more on the porous MSU defense, the Vols have been so good defensively that we're hammering the Under, especially at this number.

We're so confident in this game being lower-scoring than expectations that we'd also recommend hitting the alt under at 56.5 and taking the Bulldogs to go under their team total. No Tennessee opponent this year has scored more than 17 points, and that includes Florida with an extra possession in an overtime game and the Crimson Tide, who average 37.6 points per game.

Mississippi State vs. Tennessee best bets:

• Under 62 (-110 at DraftKings) 2 units
• Alt total: Under 56.5 (+156 at DK) 0.5 units
• Mississsippi State Team Total Under 17.5 (-105 at DK) 0.5 units

How to Bet Colorado (-4) vs. Texas Tech

Kickoff: 4 p.m. ET (FOX)

Let's close by tackling an intriguing matchup in the Big 12. In No. 20 Colorado vs. Texas Tech, one of the best passing attacks in the nation has an excellent matchup against a weak secondary.

We're referring, of course, to No. 20 Colorado (6-2, 4-1 Big 12) vs. Texas Tech (6-3, 4-2 Big 12), which has one the highest totals of any CFB game this weekend.

Even with a total at around 62.5 at most sportsbooks, we're leaning toward the over given not only how well Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders and Co. move the ball through the air, but just as importantly, the way Texas Tech -- which is allowing 307 passing yards per game -- has been beaten through the air.

In recent weeks, the Red Raiders gave up 41 points (and 400-plus passing yards) to Cincinnati, 59 to Baylor and 35 to TCU. Overall, the Red Raiders are no push-over -- in fact they're coming off a win over previously undefeated Iowa State last Saturday -- but it has not fared well against quality QBs.

Back in September, Tech got shredded by Abilene Christian in a 52-51 season-opening win, as Wildcats QB Maverick McIvor threw for over 500 yards.

The reason Colorado is 4-1 in conference play and squarely in the mix for a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game is how much it has improved at everything besides its passing game. Still, Sanders, star WR/CB Travis Hunter and the rest of this team's dangerous receiving corps remain the players that scare Colorado opponents the most.

The Buffaloes defense has played well enough in recent weeks that we're not sure the Over is a lock, but we feel great about Colorado's team total over, with a small play on the Over also advisable.

Colorado vs. Texas Tech best bets:

• Colorado Team Total Over 37.5 (+140 at DraftKings) 1 unit
• Over 62.5 (-110 at bet365) 0.75 units

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