Fashion in 2025: who will survive and who will thrive?

Since the Chanel question has been resolved, nicely before the Christmas break, we now have the mental capacity to contemplate looking forward to 2025. 2024 was difficult to say the least. A year when the brakes got slammed onto the luxury market and everybody else just felt lucky to survive, let alone grow.

Trump tariffs

The new year will start with Trump. His greed-is-good attitude will motivate those who are happy to see him back in office to invest optimistically. His tariff threats are making people this side of the pond nervous, but his unpredictable nature makes nothing a dead cert and he won’t want anything that is ‘nasty’ for business. While the lip service will remain, many fashion brands will put expensive ESG and DE&I initiatives on the back burner, blaming the new Trump administration.

Consumer confidence

Above inflation increases in minimum wages and state pensions should increase spend for entry level consumers. Inflation is slowing and, in some cases, prices should fall for goods. Interest rates will drop and people should start to feel like they have more money in their pockets or just be sick of not splurging.

From quiet luxury to new luxury 

In retail, while Bond Street-type luxury will continue to struggle, the layer below, offering something different and fresh, will benefit. Brands like Polène, Farm Rio, Jacquemus and Rixo will tap into a market sick of logos and those who just want nice things from nice shops.

Local focus 

People will continue to focus on local affluent hotspots like Chelsea and Marylebone, ignoring the cookie-cutter international strips of homogenous stores on prime tourist streets. Regional powerhouses like Liverpool or Leeds, with premium shopping centres, will benefit, while wealthy country and market towns will also see retail investment, tapping into the older consumer,

High street giants continue evolution...

Brands like M&S will continue to rejig its store estate (it ended this year finally gaining planning permission to demolish and rebuild its Marble Arch flagship), closing in dying towns while opening in new urban places. The John Lewis’ revival will continue under Peter Ruis, who will introduce products and brands ideal for its core audience. Next is moving into the entry luxury arena for the reasons mentioned above.

... while mass high street continues to bore us

Sadly, the retail opening of the year will probably be central London’s Ikea at the old Topshop on Oxford Circus, which seems to sum up the boring state of mass retail right now. We could be surprised. Bond Street is getting a giant Rolex, where you probably can’t walk-in off the street and buy anything anyway, which again seems to sum up the pointlessness of contemporary ‘luxury’.

Brands doing well will continue to do well, the rest will flounder and some will hit the rocks if this Christmas isn’t strong for them to see them through.

Topshop set for a comeback

Could we see a return of Topshop under new ownership? Denmark's Bestseller bought the much loved high-street brand for $178 million in a joint venture with current owner ASOS and could be planning a physical retail comeback.

Multibrand luxury makes moves.

Harvey Nichols seems to be putting its ducks in order to start getting its name back out there, but is the designer market competition too much? Will Frasers Group continue to dominate with its Flannels superstores or will this be a year of plateauing saturation for them? Will Harrods be given a rebrand and remove all traces of its previous owner? It needs it. And, finally will we see a rebirth in luxury e-commerce. Mytheresa certainly hopes so having acquired rival YOOX Net-a-Porter earlier this year.

Tom Ford could make a big come-back

Could fashion entice Tom Ford back. He has a lot of money burning a hole in his pocket, he’s moved back to his fashion town, London, where he designed Gucci and his eponymous label, and he’s turning up to Stella McCartney handbag launches so he’s not adverse to being seen. What could this all mean. Fingers crossed.

They’ll be more consolidation and more brand management groups over stretching themselves with acquisitions. Opportunities for luxury bargains, for those with the long-term, deep pocketed views, will come along. Think Versace and Jimmy Choo.

New creative directors will reveal their hands (but not until the end of the year)

Creatively, for a business that works so far ahead, it is, ironically, so far behind. Mathieu Blazy won’t show his first collection for Chanel until October 2025, so it won’t hit stores until the end of the year, at the earliest. All the other movements, such as JW Anderson and John Galliano, will be similar, so for anything majorly creative, 2025 is looking a little bit lost already.

Plus, we are bored of caring about these old guns and endless talk of ‘musical chairs’, who dash our creative hopes anyway or just cookie-cutter their signatures under a new brand.

But, fashion is fashion, full of surprises and completely unpredictable and that’s why we love it so much.