Despite polls showing a historically tight contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, a significant "Electoral College blowout" is more likely than one might expect, according to a polling analyst.
Speaking on CNN This Morning, Harry Enten explained that, according to his models, there is a 60 percent chance that the winning candidate will secure at least 300 electoral votes.
"So, for all the talk we've had about this election being historically close—which it is—chances are the winner will still actually score a relative blowout in the Electoral College," Enten said while speaking with anchor John Berman.
This prediction stems from polling averages in seven key battleground states, where the margins between Harris and Trump are currently under two points. However, Enten emphasized that polling errors in these states could dramatically tip the balance.
"If you look across the seven key swing states—the seven closest states—in all of them, the margin right now is under two points," Enten explained. "But keep in mind, polling ain't perfect, my dear friends. On average, since 1972, in the battleground states, the average error in the key swing states is 3.4 points."
The potential impact of polling errors has been a recurring theme in recent elections. Historically, such errors have often underestimated one candidate's support across multiple states, which can result in a dramatic shift in the final electoral count. Enten highlighted this trend, citing examples from the past three elections.
"In 2012, 92 percent of the states moved in Obama's direction. That is, the polls 'underdid' Obama. In 2016, 83 percent of the swing states moved together because the polls 'underdid' Donald Trump," Enten said. "And how about in 2020? In 100 percent of the swing state poll averages, Trump was underestimated, so he did better than a lot of folks thought."
Based on these historical examples, Enten suggested that it is "more likely than not" that the polls in 2024 will similarly move in one direction, leading to a significant electoral advantage for one of the candidates.
He added, "So, this time around, don't be surprised if the swing state polls, when they underestimate one candidate, underestimate them in all the states. And that would lead to a relative Electoral College blowout, with one of the candidates winning at least 300 electoral votes."
Polling errors across key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin—states that were pivotal in previous elections and are expected to play a critical role in 2024—support the possibility of such a blowout. Enten emphasized that these errors could go either way.
"You could end up with a map like this for Kamala Harris, where she wins all the key Great Lakes battleground states, wins North Carolina, wins Georgia, wins Arizona, wins Nevada, and she gets to 390 [electoral votes]—that's even better than Biden did," he said.
Alternatively, a similar shift could favor Trump. "Of course, it could go in the other direction, where Trump wins all the key Great Lakes battleground states, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada, and he gets to 312 electoral votes—that's even better than Trump did."
Despite the closeness of the race in national polls, Enten's analysis indicates that the unpredictable nature of polling errors in key battleground states could lead to a surprisingly one-sided result. Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver's tracker show Harris ahead nationally, while Trump maintains a higher chance than his opponent of winning the Electoral College.
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