Most Americans believe former President Donald Trump, the GOP nominee, is likely to claim victory even if he were to lose the 2024 presidential election, according to a recent poll.
A survey by YouGov that was published on Saturday found that around two thirds (67 percent) of respondents think it is either somewhat or very likely that Trump will refuse to concede the election if Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, is declared the winner. Meanwhile, 18 percent said they were unsure and 16 percent said it was either not very likely or not at all likely.
Among Democrats, the vast majority (82 percent) thought it was likely Trump would not concede and just 13 percent thought it was unlikely. The remainder were unsure.
More than half (55 percent) of Republicans believed it was likely Trump would not concede. In addition, 24 percent said it was unlikely and 21 percent were not sure.
The survey was conducted among 1,149 U.S. adults online, between October 29 and 31. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification, and current voter registration status. It had a margin of error of approximately 4 percent.
When contacted for comment on the poll and whether Trump would concede if Harris were to win, campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told Newsweek that the former president "has been consistent and clear: we must have free and fair elections."
The survey also found that Americans thought it less likely Harris would refuse to concede. Just 16 percent said it was very likely and 17 percent said it was somewhat likely. Among Republicans, 31 percent said it was very likely Harris would refuse to concede, but just 7 percent of Democrats said the same.
Although the 2020 election was won by President Joe Biden, Trump and many Republicans have maintained claims that the election was stolen via widespread voter fraud, despite this claim being rejected repeatedly in court and by independent election experts. On January 6, 2021, thousands of Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol building in an attempt to stop the certification of Biden's victory, triggering violence in the process, which led to one person being shot dead by police and the injuries of dozens of officers.
A separate poll, conducted exclusively for Newsweek on October 21, found that many Republican voters want Trump to concede should he lose the election.
The Redfield & Wilton Strategies survey found that 44 percent of voters who either had voted for, or planned to vote for Trump believe he should "publicly concede defeat to Kamala Harris."
This was compared to 34 percent who did not think so, and 21 percent who said they didn't know.
Andrew Wroe, senior lecturer in American politics at the University of Kent in the United Kingdom, told Newsweek that it is "almost impossible to imagine a scenario in which Trump concedes the 2024 presidential election, whether he loses the Electoral College by a very small or very substantial margin or anything in-between."
He added: "He has said numerous times that if the election is fair, he wins. Thus, if he loses, the election is, by his definition, rigged and conceding is simply out of the question."
Wroe said he had noticed Trump's talk of election fraud ratchet up as election night drew closer.
"A cornerstone of democracy is that the losing candidate or party concedes defeat, paving the way for a peaceful transfer of power. Civil unrest or even political violence is a distinct possibility as Trump stirs his supporters to reject the result. We are potentially at an inflection point in American democracy," Wroe added.
As the 2024 race for the White House nears its conclusion, polls indicate that the candidates are neck-and-neck.
According to 538's national polling averages, Harris has a slim lead of just 1.1 points as of Monday afternoon.
As for the all-important swing states that are likely to decide the victor, Trump narrowly led in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and North Carolina. Harris was just ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin.
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