The first base market has been picked apart at this point. The Houston Astros agreed to a deal with free agent first baseman Christian Walker. The New York Yankees traded for Cody Bellinger and signed Paul Goldschmidt, and now the Washington Nationals have swung a deal to acquire first baseman Nathaniel Lowe from the Texas Rangers.
All this action doesn't leave many suitors left for the best first baseman on the market, Pete Alonso. Alonso is coming off a year in which he slugged 34 home runs for the New York Mets. During his six-year career with New York, Alonso has been worth 19.8 WAR while smashing 226 home runs.
The Nationals, Yankees, and Astros were seen as top suitors for Alonso, but they've all found their first baseman for 2025. With the market so depleted, where will Alonso sign?
Prediction: Pete Alonso signs with the New York Mets. Six years, $148 million.
At this point, it's inevitable for Alonso to return to Queens. The Mets have been the favorites for quite a while in the Alonso sweepstakes, but now the rest of the suitors have effectively taken themselves out of the race.
Owner Steve Cohen has the money to bring back Alonso and with the market so depleted, he could do it for cheap. No other team in the league is going to offer the Polar Bear $150 million in free agency, so I expect him to return to the Mets on a six-year deal worth just under the $150 million mark.
After trading Lowe to the Nationals, the Rangers could emerge as a potential suitor for Alonso, but it's not as likely as the Mets re-signing him.
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