The majority of Americans still believe that Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election, according to a new poll.
The most recent survey by Verasight, conducted at the end of September asked voters who they expect to win the election, rather than who they will vote for - a method known as "citizen forecasting" that some studies have shown is more accurate at predicting the victor.
Fifty-five percent of respondents said Harris would win, down one percentage point since the August poll, and 13 points ahead of former President Donald Trump. Currently, the two candidates are neck and neck in polls that ask people who they are voting for, in what could be one of the closest presidential elections in modern history.
"Citizen forecasting effectively multiplies the sample size, since the survey reaches beyond the direct respondent and incorporates information about the vote intentions of those in the respondent's social network," Columbia University's Rajiv Sethi told Newsweek. "Larger sample sizes tend to result in more accurate forecasts."
Verasight's polling in June and July showed Trump ahead of President Joe Biden, but swapping out the incumbent for the vice president has seemingly reversed the Democrats' fortunes.
Writing about the latest results in Sabato's Crystal Ball, the authors said, "a Harris victory is expected by most major demographic groups."
"Close races are hard to call," they wrote. "However, across the entire series, 1956 to 2020, whenever the expectation percentage has exceeded 50 percent, as is the case with the Harris-Trump race, the forecast of the presidential winner has always been correct."
Fifty-four percent of men and 56 percent of women across all age groups predict Harris will win in November. Trump performs best with those who have high-school level educations (50 percent of that demographic predict him winning) and—unsurprisingly perhaps—Republicans (84 percent).
The authors conclude that "in an uncertain election, citizens are telling an increasingly clear story about who will win—and November will be their ultimate test."
A lot has happened since October 2, the last day of the more recent polling period, that could affect the citizens' forecast.
The unsealing of special counsel Jack Smith's legal filings, the revelations from the release of Bob Woodward's book War, and a groping allegation made by former model Stacey Williams have brought increased scrutiny on Trump.
The devastating Hurricane Milton and Hurricane Helene, and escalating conflict in the Middle East have also been an issue for Harris.
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