After a light, three-game NBA betting slate on Thursday, the NBA is back with a vengeance with 13 games on tap for tonight.
This evening's slate features some big matchups, including:
- Milwaukee Bucks vs. New York Knicks, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
- Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets, 9 p.m. ET
For this article, we will be providing the best NBA player prop picks today.
Luka Doncic o30.5 Points (-120) Fliff
Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks, 7:30 p.m. ET
In this Suns vs. Mavs game, taking the over on the points for Doncic is a smash play.
For starters, this is a matchup that Doncic has relished ever since that playoff series in the 2021-2022 NBA season. This is a number that Doncic has gone over an astonishing nine games in a row against the Suns.
That includes a game earlier this season when he put up 40 against Phoenix on Oct. 26.
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Not only has Doncic dominated this matchup against the Suns over the past three seasons, but he has a distinct matchup advantage over the Suns and the way they play defense.
So far this season, the Suns have allowed the most pull up field-goal attempts (FGA) in the league, and the most pull up 3-point attempts (3PA) as well.
Allowing a bunch of pull-up FGAs is a death sentence going up against someone with the skill set of Doncic, who has scored the second-most points via pull-ups in the NBA this year.
Luka Doncic over 30.5 points (-120): 1 Unit
Fred VanVleet u14.5 Points (-115) DraftKings
Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, 8 p.m. ET
This Oklahoma City defense is a terrible matchup for VanVleet, which is why we are taking the under on his points prop.
In terms of play type, VanVleet scores over 50 percent of his points as the pick-and-roll (PnR) ball handler, and the spot on the floor where he scores the most is above-the-break 3-point range (46 percent of his points).
Unfortunately for VanVleet, the Thunder are well-equipped to limit points in both of these areas.
They have allowed the fewest points per game this year to PnR ball handlers, while also allowing the fewest made above-the-break 3-pointers in the NBA.
These two are related, but when Fred VanVleet scores it is normally from pulling up from the above-the-break while running the PnR. The Thunder allow both the fewest made and attempted pull-up 3-pointers as well.
They are essentially the polar opposite defense of the Suns (detailed above), making this a brutal matchup for VanVleet's points prop.
Fred VanVleet under 14.5 points (-115): 1 Unit
Jalen Brunson 30+ Points (+115) DraftKings
Milwaukee Bucks vs. New York Knicks, 7:30 p.m. ET
This is another system play here: point guard points props over against the Bucks for PGs who are adept at running PnRs and who can pull up, either from 3-point range or the mid-range.
While Brunson has only scored 30 points once this year, this is a great matchup for him against Milwaukee.
On the year, the Bucks have allowed the seventh-most points to PGs, but that does not quite tell the whole story.
They also allow the fifth-most pull-up 3PA, the fourth-most above-the-break 3PA, the seventh-most midrange FGA and the ninth-most points allowed to the PnR ball handler.
Brunson has turned himself into an excellent pull-up shooter and is skilled at running the PnR as well.
This year, he has scored the 11th-most points in the entire NBA from pull-up shooting, and the fourth-most points as the PnR ball handler.
The last three times Brunson has played the Bucks, he scored 36, 38 and 43 points. He should go over once again tonight.
Jalen Brunson 30+ points (+115): 1 Unit
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