NFL Week 9 Player Props: 3 Best Bets for Sunday

Last week was a quiet 84-yard day, as he did not score a TD, nor did he have a 40-plus yard catch, which he did in the previous three starts. It was DeVonta Smith's turn to shine last week on a long touchdown bomb, but the guess here is that Brown will get one this week.

Of all receivers in the NFL with at least 15 targets, Brown is averaging the second-most receiving yards per game, with only Nico Collins above him. The beauty of A.J. Brown is his ability to have explosive plays, as he is No. 1 in both yards per route run and yards per target.

This is also a great matchup against a horrible Jaguars passing defense. The Jaguars have the worst defense in the NFL, according to DVOA, and they have allowed the third-most passing yards per game. Brown is also phenomenal against man coverage, which the Jaguars run at the second-highest rate in the league.

Of all receivers who have run at least 10 routes against man coverage, Brown has the highest yards per route run. As long as the Jaguars can keep up even a little bit, Brown should have a huge game.

Joe Flacco o233.5 Pass. Yards (-114) FanDuel

Indianapolis Colts vs. Minnesota Vikings, 8:20 p.m. ET

For the Sunday Night Football game, we love Flacco to go over his passing yards prop.

Part of this goes back to when he played for different teams, but the reality is wherever Flacco goes and whichever team he plays for, he passes for a bunch of yards. He only hit this in one of his two starts this year specifically, but he smoked the over with 359 passing yards in a plus matchup against the Jaguars.

Last year, he went over this number in all six of his starts, including the playoffs, and he got to 300 passing yards in five of six starts. The reality is, when Flacco plays football, he consistently throws the ball a ton and piles up a ton of yards.

Now, he gets a matchup against a good Vikings defense, but one that allows a ton of passing yards. Minnesota is currently allowing the second-most passing yards per game on the year.

Since Week 2, they have allowed 300.8 passing yards per game, the second-most in the NFL. Look for Flacco to throw the ball early and often on Sunday night.

De'Von Achane o4.5 Receptions (+115) BetMGM

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m. ET

In the three games that Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has started, Achane has seven, seven and six receptions. You can't reall take anything from the non-Tagovailoa games, as the Dolphins are a completely different offense without their QB.

If we just look at those three games we just mentioned specifically, which is, to remind you, every game that Tagovailoa has started this season, Achane would have a target rate of 18.4 percent (second on the Dolphins) and a targets per route run of 0.39.

Since all of his targets are coming out of the backfield, he has a catch rate of 95.2 percent.

For context, if we extrapolate those numbers out to the entire season, that would give him a higher targets per route run than every single receiver in the NFL except for Malik Nabers.

This is also a plus matchup for running back receiving props in general against the Bills. On the entire season, the Bills have allowed the most receiving yards to RBs in the NFL and the most receptions on the most targets.

It is clear that teams game plan to get their running back involved in the passing game when they play the Bills, and Achane had seven receptions against the Bills in this exact matchup, and he just needs five to cash out this play.

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