While 2024 was a pivotal year for elections in the United States, the off-year state and district elections ahead of the midterms may set the stage for 2026 by offering a glimpse into shifting party strategies, voter sentiment, and early public verdict on President-elect Donald Trump.
Why It Matters
With three special House elections likely to be scheduled following Trump's Cabinet nominations, the GOP's House majority could narrow to three seats, though the heavily Republican districts make this very unlikely.
Two gubernatorial races in the off-year elections could provide a barometer for voters' willingness to embrace Trump-aligned candidates or reject the soon-to-be president's endorsements, offering early clues about his potential public approval ratings.
Lastly, the elections could signal a possible shift in the Democratic Party's strategy or direction following its loss in the 2024 elections.
What To Know
There are several state races to watch, including special district elections, gubernatorial contests, and some mayoral races.
John Feehery, a partner at EFB Advocacy who previously served in the House Republican leadership, told Newsweek in an email on Saturday, "Republicans should start lowering expectations right now about what the elections means. Underpromise and hope to overdeliver."
Special House Elections
As Trump has nominated Republican Representatives Michael Waltz and Elise Stefanik to Cabinet positions, their congressional seats will be decided in special elections in 2025. Former Representative Matt Gaetz's district is also up for election. Gaetz resigned from Congress after being tapped as Trump's attorney general, though he has since withdrawn his nomination.
In Florida's 1st District, formerly held by Gaetz, Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson have endorsed Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, who is stepping down to run for Congress.
Several Republicans and Democrat Gay Valimont, who lost to Gaetz in November, are also in the race for the safe Republican seat.
On the other side of the state, in Florida's 6th District, another safely Republican seat, state Senator Randy Fine received Trump's endorsement to replace Waltz should he serve as Trump's national security adviser.
In New York's 21st District, Stefanik is expected to vacate the seat after being tapped to serve as ambassador to the United Nations. Trump has not officially endorsed any of the candidates in this race.
Low turnout in off-year elections may also bring unexpected outcomes to the safely Republican seats.
Gubernatorial Races
New Jersey and Virginia are slated to hold gubernatorial elections next year as both the incumbent governors are term-limited.
"Both the New Jersey and Virginia contests offer the Democrats a chance to reset their message as they look to rebuild their political coalition," Kevin Madden, a senior partner at Penta Group, told Newsweek.
New Jersey currently has a Democratic governor, while Virginia has a Republican governor.
In recent years, New Jersey, a state that reliably votes Democratic in presidential elections, has alternated between parties for its governor, often opposing the sitting president's party. Democratic Governor Phil Murphy was elected during Donald Trump's presidency, while former Republican Governor Chris Christie was elected during Barack Obama's first term.
Democratic candidates include Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, U.S. Representative Josh Gottheimer, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, president of the New Jersey Education Association Sean Spiller, and former U.S. Navy helicopter pilot Mikie Sherrill.
Madden told Newsweek that Gottheimer "has been one of the main voices in the party looking to center its appeal more toward kitchen-table economics and less on progressive culture fights," noting that his electoral results may reflect a shift in Democratic messaging from 2024.
On the Republican side, most candidates have supported Trump, while others, notably state Senator Jon Bramnick, have been more critical of the former president. The election could highlight the influence of a Trump endorsement or alignment.
Democratic strategist Michael Gordon mentioned Virginia's similar trend of electing governors from the opposite party of the president, except when Democrat Terry McAuliffe won during Barack Obama's second term while speaking to Newsweek.
Republican Glenn Youngkin became governor under President Joe Biden, and Democrat Ralph Northam won during Donald Trump's presidency.
There are several candidates in the race, none of whom Trump has formally endorsed.
Two prominent candidates, Democratic Representative Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears, could become Virginia's first female governor if they secure the top post.
Governors aligned with the president are more likely to collaborate on federal policies. Outspoken governors, whether for or against the president, may influence down-ballot voting in future elections.
What People Are Saying:
Michael Gordon, Democratic strategist and principal at Group Gordon, told Newsweek: "The November elections one year after a presidential are invariably a referendum on the president. Much more often than not, the party out of favor wins these elections. It's part of the natural cycle of politics.
Kevin Madden, a senior partner at Penta Group, told Newsweek: "The politics of the 2024 cycle were pretty simple in that Democrats lost too many working-class voters, and they need to get them back. I'd expect the 2025 contests will turn into a lab experiment for Democratic strategists looking to prove that the leftward lurch of the last two cycles can be corrected with a more mainstream message."
Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of Inside Elections, told Newsweek: "Next year is the first opportunity for Democrats to bounce back from a disappointing 2024...The next couple years will test which party can turn out their voters when Trump isn't on the ballot."
John Feehery, partner at EFB Advocacy, told Newsweek in an email Saturday: "Virginia is going to be tough because it is really a blue state despite its purple state veneer, more so because Trump wants to dramatically reduce the government workforce. New Jersey is trending in the right way, but it is blue state too. NYC has some possibilities but it is still pretty blue. So I don't think Republicans are going to do that well, but if they do, it means we had a true realignment election in 2024."
Election Dates To Look Out For
Primaries for Florida's congressional races are scheduled for January 28, 2025, with the general elections to be held on April 1, 2025. The special election for Stefanik's seat has not yet been officially announced.
In New Jersey, the gubernatorial primary is to be held on June 3, 2025, with the general election on November 4, 2025. In Virginia, the primary is scheduled for June 17, 2025, with the general election set for November 4, 2025.
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