Pete Buttigieg's Chances of Winning Michigan Senate Primary: Poll

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Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg holds a lead over other potential Democrats in the 2026 Michigan Senate primary election, according to a new poll.

Why It Matters

Buttigieg, who rose to national prominence after his long-shot presidential bid in 2020, has been viewed as a rising star in the Democratic Party. Next year's Michigan Senate race may be his best chance to return to elected office after incumbent Senator Gary Peters, a Democrat, said he plans to retire at the end of the current term.

He brings high name recognition and popularity among the party's base. However, he is likely to face several other prominent Democrats to win the nomination, many of whom have deep ties to the state and are well-known to Michigan voters.

Michigan's Senate race is expected to be one of the most competitive in 2026, as it remains a closely divided battleground state. President Donald Trump carried it by about 1.4 points last year, but a Democrat, Elissa Slotkin, won the Senate race.

What To Know

According to a Blueprint Polling memo originally published by Semafor, Michigan Democrats favor Buttigieg, though no major candidates have formally announced a campaign yet.

Buttigieg received support from 40 percent of respondents, while Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel placed second, with 16 percent, according to the poll.

Nessel spokesperson Kimberly Bush told Newsweek on Thursday the attorney general has been "singularly focused on protecting the State of Michigan and her people from the rogue, lawless actions of the federal government and the escalating harm Trump and his allies are inflicting upon Michigan residents."

Nessel is "pleased to see these positions have been embraced by Democratic voters, as indicated by her favorability in this poll," Bush said.

"She has tremendous respect for Pete Buttigieg, and recognizes that he is well known and liked throughout Michigan. However, given that it is unclear if he will run and her nearly equal name recognition with his in this poll, she is seriously exploring the open U.S. Senate seat as a potential avenue to continue this critical work," she wrote.

Other potential candidates, such as Representatives Hillary Scholten and Haley Stevens, State Senator Mallory McMorrow and Lieutenant Governor Garlin Gilchrist—who said he is not running for Senate—placed in the single-digits.

Newsweek reached out to Scholten, Stevens, McMorrow and Gilchrist's teams via email for comment.

The poll surveyed 536 Democratic primary voters from January 30 to February 2, 2025, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

The memo outlined two races—one if Buttigieg runs and one if he stays out of the race.

"In scenario A, Pete Buttigieg is the overwhelming front-runner. He struggles with Black voters and nearly a third of the electorate remains undecided, but his strength with educated voters white liberals makes him the odds-on favorite to win the nomination," the memo reads.

If he does not run, Nessel would become the front-runner. According to the polling memo, she performs better with Black voters and is "equally strong" among voters with a college degree and those without.

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer said she is not running in the Senate race, while Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is running to replace Whitmer in the gubernatorial race.

What People Are Saying

Former Representative Mark Schauer, a Democrat, to The Hill: "I think [Buttigieg] is a rare political talent, which he's demonstrated as the Transportation secretary and on the campaign trail."

Lakshya Jain, of election analysis website Split-Ticket, on X, formerly Twitter: "Buttigieg would be a high-risk, high-reward pick for Democrats. Far riskier because he's not from Michigan. But he's the most telegenic media personality the party has and, if he gets the nomination and wins this, is an instant 2028 front runner (especially if Harris doesn't run)."