The Progressive Capital of America Is Turning on Itself

California voters appear poised to reject several progressive ballot measures this November, according to a new poll, suggesting a change to the state's progressive posture that could influence downballot Congressional races and reflect poorly on Gavin Newsom, the lame-duck governor who is said to have his sights on the White House.

There are five citizens' initiatives and five legislative constitutional amendments up for a vote in California this year. The state is famous for its roots in direct democracy, making it relatively easy for a citizen or special-interest group to collect enough signatures to get their initiative on the ballot.

This year, on the same ballot as the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris, who began her political career in the Golden State, and former President Donald Trump, voters also will decide on issues ranging from LGBTQ+ rights to criminal justice reform.

A new statewide poll from the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) suggests voters in the Democratic stronghold aren't on board with some of the progressive policies on the ballot.

The poll did not point to a major Republican surge in the state, which Trump is all but certain to lose by a wide margin. In the PPIC poll, Harris led Trump by 26 points (59 percent to 33 percent), just shy of President Biden's 29 victory in the state four years earlier. The difference may be even smaller given the poll's sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 points. The two candidates remain separated by razor-thin margins nationwide and in key battlegrounds.

Election materials are displayed at the Santa Clara County registrar of voters office on October 21, 2024 in San Jose, California. A new poll suggests voters in California are poised to reject a handful of... Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

But the survey that some Democrats and independents who are backing Harris for president are set to vote against liberal ballot measures on the economy and criminal justice reform.

Mark Baldassare, PPIC's statewide survey director, told Newsweek on Thursday that while some of the results of the poll were surprising, the makeup of California allows for these ballot measures to have support that some wouldn't expect to match California's progressive reputation. Four in 10 Californians identify as liberal, while 3 in 10 identify as moderate and conservative each, he said.

"You have all kinds of different outcomes on state propositions that you might necessarily think of as Democratic," he said. "Most Californians are liberal on social and environmental issues and are more conservative on law and order issues and fiscal issues."

Two economic propositions are lagging in support, according to the poll. Proposition 32, which would raise the state minimum wage to $18 per hour, only has support from 44 percent of likely voters, compared to 54 percent of voters who plan to vote against it.

Even a narrow majority of Democrats—51 percent to 47 percent—are planning to reject the minimum wage referendum, according to the poll.

Baldassare noted that polls show more voters are in support of raising the minimum wage when asked about the issue in theory, but campaigning has raised concerns about how the proposal would affect the cost of living and inflation, which has been a major campaign issue over the past few years even as the inflation rate has declined.

Meanwhile, only 42 percent of respondents said they plan to support Proposition 33, which would allow local governments to enact rent control. Fifty-four percent said they are going to vote against the proposition.

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) speaks to reporters in the spin room following the CNN Presidential Debate between U.S. President Joe Biden and Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump at the McCamish Pavilion on... GETTY

The most high-profile ballot measure is Proposition 36, which would allow stronger penalties for certain drug and theft crimes, including mandatory treatment for repeat drug offenders. Prop 36 received the most support from voters—73 percent plan to vote for it, while only 25 percent are in opposition, the poll found.

Those numbers come despite Governor Gavin Newsom's strong opposition. Newsom has linked the tough-on-crime measure to a return on the days of the War on Drugs, started by Richard Nixon. Still, voters do not appear swayed.

Proposition 6, which would eliminate a constitutional provision that allows "involuntary servitude for incarcerated persons" — essentially a ban on forced labor in prisons — also received chilly reception from poll respondents. Forty-one percent said they are planning to vote against it, while 56 percent said they are voting against it.

That is perhaps the poll's most notable finding, given that there are no major groups campaigning against the forced labor referendum and it still faces an uphill climb.

Still, voters are backing progressive policies in other areas. The poll found widespread support for Proposition 3, a constitutional amendment that would enshrine marriage rights for same-sex couples into the state constitution. Sixty-seven percent of respondents said they plan to vote for it, while 32 percent said they oppose the amendment.

Proposition 4, which would allow $10 billion in climate change and environmental bonds has support from most voters—54 percent said they plan to support it, while 42 percent are in opposition, according to the poll.

The poll surveyed 1,646 Californians from October 7 to October 15.

Californian's embrace of more moderate policies on these fiscal and criminal justice issues mirrors a shift to the center from Harris as she seeks to win over moderate and undecided voters in key battlegrounds.

While Harris established a reputation as a more liberal senator, she has shifted toward more middle-of-the-road rhetoric on the campaign trail, emphasizing her work as a prosecutor, support for small businesses and foreign policy credentials.

Polls like this may be contributing to that shift, Baldassare said.

"It gives you a sense that there a lot of voters who are in the middle of the political spectrum in California and elsewhere that are looking at things out of the lens of issues, not necessarily partisan politics," he said.

"Those are the very kinds of voters that presidential candidates are seeking in a time when the nation is closely divided."

These ballot measures may also have implications for the race for control of Congress, according to Baldassare.

Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in the House of Representatives—220 seats compared to Democrats' 212 seats. Democrats' path to flipping the House runs through just a few states, including California, where there are at least 7 competitive races, according to the Cook Political Report.

"Some candidates running in competitive districts statewide or otherwise, this may give them pause for thought on endorsing proposals favored by party," Baldassare said, noting that Democratic candidates running in competitive races may opt to stay in the middle on issues where they see voters doing the same.