The chances of would-be Storm Patty turning into a tropical event have increased in the last 24 hours.
Since October 26, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has been monitoring an area in the southwestern Caribbean Sea for potential tropical development. The NHC said there is now a 60 percent chance the storm will develop into a tropical cyclone in the coming seven days—up from 50 percent in yesterday's update.
The odds of the storm intensifying in the next 48 hours remains low for now at 30 percent, as per a 2:00 a.m. ET update.
A tropical cyclone describes any storm above tropical depression strength, including tropical storms and hurricanes. For now, forecasters think there will be a tropical depression, with plenty of rainfall over Central American countries like Nicaragua and Honduras.
"A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so," the forecaster said. "Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or western Caribbean Sea."
Brian Tang, associate professor of atmospheric science at New York University, told Newsweek the storm doesn't appear to have the makings of a tropical cyclone at present.
"Thunderstorms associated with the tropical disturbance would need to consolidate more around the center of the disturbance," he said. "A closed circulation would also need to form around the center. Once that happens, the tropical disturbance could further intensify into a tropical storm or hurricane."
The NHC said that regardless of the extent of its development, for now local heavy rains "are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean."
Weather Channel meteorologist Danielle Banks said it is possible a "tropical depression could form" over the coming weekend or in the early part of next week as the system continues to travel north toward Cancun and western Cuba. She said the storm is "definitely a concern" as heavy rains "could cause flooding in parts of Central America."
However, the NHC said on X, formerly Twitter, that the storm poses no threat to the U.S. within the seven-day period following October 28.
There are two other areas currently under observation by NHC meteorologists, one in the northeastern Caribbean Sea and another in the North Atlantic Ocean. Both have low chances of development at this stage, ranging from 10 to 20 percent as of the 2:00 a.m. NHC update.
In total, 15 named storms have formed throughout the current hurricane season, including 10 hurricanes. Five hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S.: Beryl, Francine, Debby, Helene and Milton.
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