Vikings-Rams Player Props: Back WRs Kupp, Jefferson for Big Games on TNF

In Week 1, his only game healthy this season, he had 14 receptions on an absurd 21 targets. While he will not quite have that type of ceiling game, the Rams are going up against a Vikings offense that can score, so they are most likely going to need to pass for the majority of this game.

We have seen this before with Kupp, going back to last season. Kupp missed the first four games of the season last year with a hamstring injury, and in his first game back he had eight receptions on 12 targets.

That was with a healthy Puka Nacua on the other side of the field, too, which will not be the case in this matchup.

Speaking of this matchup, for ass good as the Vikings defense has been this year, it has been lit up by opposing No. 1 receivers. According to DVOA, the Vikes have allowed the most receiving yards to No. 1 wideouts in the entire NFL.

With 93.6 receiving yards per game allowed to opponents' top options, the Rams are one of only two teams allowing above 90 yards per game. Overall, they are allowing the second-most passing yards to wide receivers in general.

So, expect Kupp to be heavily targeted in his first game back and cash this receptions prop for us.

Cooper Kupp over 6.5 receptions (-114): 1 Unit

J. Jefferson o82.5 Rec. Yards (-110) BetMGM

Despite having a very good season overall, Jefferson has not quite blown his receiving yards out of the water the way we have come to expect.

He has only hit the 90-yard mark twice this season and gone over 100 yards once. He has, however, been consistent, with no dud games. Since Week 1, he has reached at least 80 receiving yards in all five games for the Vikings.

The beauty of backing Jefferson (aside from him being the best receiver in the NFL), is that he is consistently heavily targeted.

He has the second-highest target rate in the NFL at 30.9 percent. Only Giants rookie Malik Nabers is ahead of him with a target share of 34.5 percent, and they are the only two receivers in the entire league with a target rate above 30 percent.

With that said, Jefferson's targets are down the field, with an average depth of target (aDOT) of 12.5 yards. Of all NFL receivers in the top 10 in target rate, Jefferson has the second-highest aDOT. He is also second in the NFL in yards per route run and third in first-read target rate.

The Vikings are a smart offense that moves Jefferson all around the formation to find the best matchups for him. He runs 64.6 percent of his routes on the outside, and 34.9 percent in the slot.

The Rams are not a very good defense overall, so the Vikings offense should have success throwing to Jefferson.

DVOA has the Rams as the fifth-worst defense in the NFL, with the 24th-ranked passing defense specifically. Their offense has been so bad (an average of just 19 points per game) that teams have not needed to throw on them a ton -- though with Kupp back, hopefully they can have more success -- but when teams have thrown on the Rams, they have had success.

The Rams are allowing the fourth-most yards per route run, the second-most yards per target and the most yards per reception.

Look for both teams' star WRs to have big games on Thursday night.

Justin Jefferson over 82.5 receiving yards (-110): 1 Unit

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