Pete Hegseth, Donald Trump's pick to lead the Department of Defense, has come under increasing scrutiny recently, leading to other potential candidates to lead the department to gain steam in betting markets.
Hegseth, a former Fox News commentator and former National Guard officer, was named by Trump as his choice to become his defense secretary when he returns to the White House in January. His nomination drew criticism over concerns that Hegseth does not have enough experience to lead the department, previous comments that women shouldn't serve in combat and a report that he was accused of sexual assault in 2017, which he has denied and has not been charged over.
A Trump-Vance spokesperson told Newsweek on Tuesday that the president-elect stands behind Hegseth despite growing scrutiny.
"The President stands firmly behind Pete as his Secretary of Defense nominee, recognizing his service to our nation and his dedication to putting America First. The Polymarket odds may fluctuate, but the President's confidence in Pete remains unwavering," the statement read.
Betting odds that the Senate would eventually confirm Hegseth plunged over the weekend following several reports about him. The New York Times published an email from his mother, Penelope Hegseth, in which she raised concerns about his alleged treatment of women.
However, she told the Times that she immediately apologized after sending the email, that the allegations in it were "not true," and that publishing the email would be "disgusting."
Meanwhile, the New Yorker published a report alleging that he was intoxicated on multiple occasions during his tenure as CEO of the Koch-backed group Concerned Veterans for America (CVA) between 2013 and 2016, "to the point of needing to be carried out of the organization's events."
When asked about the report, Hegseth said, "Not gonna dignify that with a response."
On Saturday, before the New Yorker article dropped, Polymarket gave Hegseth roughly a 65 percent chance of eventually becoming defense secretary. By Monday, his odds dropped to about 28 percent, though it had modestly bounced up to 41 percent by Tuesday.
Here is a look at the other candidates Polymarket traders believe could replace Hegseth if he drops his bid to lead the DOD.
Representative Mike Rogers
Representative Mike Rogers is viewed as the second-most likely choice to become defense secretary. He has represented Alabama in Congress since 2003 and chairs the House Armed Services Committee. In Congress, Rogers has at times sparred with some of his more conservative colleagues, calling those who led former Speaker Kevin McCarthy's ouster "traitors."
Polymarket gives him a 16 percent chance to lead the DOD.
Outlets like the Associated Press previously named him a potential defense secretary. Regarding foreign policy, Rogers has been viewed as a more traditional conservative than some Trump-aligned Republicans. For instance, he has advocated for more Ukraine funding.
One downside for Republicans, if Rogers is picked, is that he would have to vacate his seat in the House of Representatives, where Republicans are poised to hold either a five or six-seat majority, depending on the outcome of the final uncalled race in California. Nominating Rogers would leave Republicans with an even smaller majority.
Senator Joni Ernst
Polymarket gives Senator Joni Ernst, an Iowa Republican, a 10 percent chance of becoming the next defense secretary. Before her 2014 election to the Senate, Ernst served in the Iowa Army National Guard from 1993 to 2015.
Ernst has been a staunch Trump ally who is set to lead the Senate's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) caucus, where she will be tasked with cutting "government waste" when Trump takes office.
She was speculated to be in the running for defense secretary before Trump picked Hegseth. Her office told reporters then that she was "laser-focused on serving Iowans and her colleagues as Conference Chair and carrying out President Trump's agenda in the Senate."
Ernst is up for reelection in 2026. Although Iowa has trended toward Republicans over the past decade, Democrats are still expected to try to make the race competitive.
Representative Mike Waltz
Representative Mike Waltz, a Florida Republican who Trump tapped to be national security adviser, is given an 8 percent chance to lead the DOD, according to Polymarket.
He served as a colonel in the National Guard and has been one of the most vocal critics of China in Congress. He previously served as defense policy director in President George W. Bush's administration.
Senator Tom Cotton
Polymarket traders give Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton a 5 percent chance of becoming Trump's defense secretary. He is viewed as a potential presidential candidate in the future and is a close Trump loyalist. He served in the U.S. Army from 2005 to 2013.
In a letter to current Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin last month, Cotton criticized some Pentagon officials he believes are "seeking to undermine President Trump's incoming administration."
"It appears that partisans and obstructionists inside the Department of Defense are laying groundwork to defy or circumvent President Trump's plans for both military and civil-service reform. These actions undermine civilian control of the military and our constitutional structure of government," he wrote, pointing to reports alleging that officials "held meetings to strategize against President Trump's defense agenda."
Other Possible Picks
Polymarket lists a handful of other contenders as having less than a five percent chance of becoming Trump's defense secretary.
Those include former acting Secretary of Defense Christopher Miller (4 percent), former national security adviser Robert O'Brien (2 percent), Representative Thomas Massie (1 percent), former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (1 percent) and former Representative Mike Gallagher (less than 1 percent).
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