As speculation grows about possible pardons under the new administration, bettors on the online prediction platform Polymarket have shared their forecasts for who could receive clemency in President Donald Trump's first 100 days.
Newsweek has contacted the White House for comment on Polymarket's list of potential Trump pardonees.
Why It Matters
Polymarket, which gained prominence and credibility for correctly calling the results of the 2024 election, calculates odds based on how many "shares" users buy in potential events occurring. The prediction market's outcome-focused odds, as well as the fact that real money is on the line, have led many to consider it a more reliable form of prognostic tool than conventional polls or political analyses.
Bettors on the platform, however, have had mixed successes in forecasting other political events, such as who Trump would pick to staff his White House cabinet.
What To Know
Aside from January 6 rioter Jacob Chansley, also referred to as the QAnon Shaman, who was among the around 1,500 protesters Trump pardoned on Monday, Polymarket bettors are most confident in the President pardoning Ross Ulbricht, the creator and operator of the online black market Silk Road.
In 2015, Ulbricht was handed a life sentence for his involvement in the enterprise and is currently incarcerated at a high-security penitentiary in Tucson, Arizona.
As of 7:00 a.m E.T., Polymarket gives Ulbricht a 92 percent chance of receiving a pardon, likely based on Trump's previous pledges to commute the 40-year-old's sentence "on Day One." While this promise went unfulfilled, Ulbricht's family-run social media account on Tuesday reposted a comment from Elon Musk that read: "Ross will be freed too."
On Monday evening, Libertarian Party Chair Angela McArdle wrote on X: "Pres. Trump's staff just confirmed to me Ross's pardon will be issued late tonight or tomorrow morning."
Steve Bannon is also slated to receive a pardon, his odds currently sitting at 54 percent. The former White House chief strategist, often regarded as a key architect of Trump's political ascendance, was released from prison in October, having served a four-month stint in federal prison for refusing to comply with a Congressional subpoena related to the January 6 Capitol attacks.
Polymarket bettors give Roger Ver, the investor sometimes referred to as "Bitcoin Jesus" thanks to his early investments in support of the cryptocurrency, a 29 percent chance of receiving a presidential pardon.
In April, Ver was arrested in Spain for evading "nearly $50 million in taxes," according to the Justice Department, and remains in the country fighting extradition requests to the U.S.
Ver has received support from prominent Trump allies such as Tucker Carlson and Roger Stone, and a petition calling for an end to his "unjust prosecution" currently has over 20,000 signatures. Musk also recently responded to an X user requesting a pardon for Ver, writing: "Will inquire."
Eric Adams, the embattled New York mayor indicted in September for accepting bribes and illegal foreign donations toward his election campaigns, has a 30 percent chance according to Polymarket's current odds.
At a December press conference in Mar-a-Lago, Trump told reporters that he would consider pardoning Adams, adding that the mayor was "treated pretty unfairly."
Whistleblowers Julian Assange and Edward Snowden, whom Trump has previously expressed interest in pardoning, have odds of 22 percent and 14 percent respectively.
Others on the list include Trump himself (9 percent), Elon Musk (3 percent) FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried (4 percent), Matt Gaetz (8 percent), rapper Young Thug (5 percent) and Daniel Penny (7 percent), the Marine Corps veteran acquitted of negligent homicide in December after fatally choking Jordan Neely on a New York City subway in 2023.
Hunter Biden is a more unexpected inclusion, with odds of 3 percent, considering Trump's comments about the former president's son and the recent pardon granted to him by his father, President Joe Biden.
Polymarket also gives rapper and producer Sean Combs, or P. Diddy, a 2 percent chance of receiving a pardon. During a 2012 episode of The Apprentice, Trump referred to Diddy, now awaiting trial for sex trafficking and racketeering, as "a good guy" and "a good friend of mine."
What People Are Saying
James Carafano, a former aide to the 2016 Trump transition team, said in an article for The Heritage Foundation think tank in October 2020: "Those who think Edward Snowden deserves a pardon are pressuring President Trump to act. That would be quite a reward for a man who's put our national security at great risk."
Representative and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), said in response to Trump pardoning the January 6 protesters: "The President's actions are an outrageous insult to our justice system and the heroes who suffered physical scars and emotional trauma as they protected the Capitol, the Congress and the Constitution."
Following Biden's decision to issue pardons for members of his family, Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) said on Monday, as quoted by The Hill: "It's probably time for us to take a look at the way the pardon system is being used. I have sympathy for President Biden, but I don't know that the extent of the pardons he granted was necessary, and I don't think any of us can be satisfied with the way that Trump or Biden used the pardon authority, one of the most extensive and sweeping executive powers that are available today."
What Happens Next?
President Trump has previously indicated a willingness to pardon many of the individuals included in Polymarket's odds, although it remains unclear how intent he is on following through on these promises within his first 100 days.
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