Every year, Major League Baseball goes through a process that every team wishes it could avoid: salary arbitration. The arbitration system gives players who are not yet eligible for free agency, but who have put in at least three seasons of major league service time, their first chance to negotiate an increase in salary.
If the team and player cannot agree on a dollar figure, they can take the dispute to a third party, an independent arbitrator, or panel of arbitrators, who conducts a hearing. In this mini-trial, the player argues why he deserves the salary he wants — and the team argues why he doesn't.
Teams, and players, generally want to avoid the confrontational hearings, which can create lingering resentments on both sides. Players are especially likely to walk away embittered because teams win about 60 percent of arbitration hearings. That's why the vast majority of arbitration-eligible cases never get to the hearing stage.
The Boston Red Sox were no exception this year — mostly. The team reached contract agreements with three of their four arbitration-eligible stars, the Red Sox announced on Thursday. But with one, 2024 All-Star Game MVP Jarren Duran, the player and team remain at loggerheads over a shockingly small amount of money (in baseball terms) and appear headed to what could be a contentious arbitration hearing.
After reaching one-year agreements with new pitching acquisition Garrett Crochet ($3.8 million), 2024's staff ace Tanner Houck ($3.95 million) and back-of-the-rotation starter Kutter Crawford ($2.75 million), the team came to Duran with an offer of $3.5 million.
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But after his breakout 2024 season, with an .834 OPS, 21 home runs and 34 stolen bases in 41 attempts, Duran reportedly wants $4 million. The Red Sox have refused to budge over the $500,000 difference, equal to about 0.3 percent of Boston's projected 2025 payroll, the two sides appear headed for a hearing before a panel of three arbitators.
Under arbitration rules, the panel will pick one figure or the other. There is no splitting the difference.
As reporter Chris Cotillo of MassLive noted, however, there is nothing stopping the Red Sox and Duran from coming to an agreement before the arbitration date which will fall between Jan. 27 and Feb. 14 in St. Petersburg, Fla.
Rather than risk a hearing, however, the Red Sox could simply trade Duran. Though much of the Red Sox offseason trade talk has centered around 24-year-old first baseman Triston Casas, according to Alex Mayes of the Talk Sox blog, Duran makes a more likely trade candidate while his value is high coming off of his career season.
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"I think we've just seen the peak of Jarren Duran. I don't believe that we will see this type of play out of him again," Mayes wrote. "Duran has a history of foot injuries, and if he keeps up the breakneck speed at which he runs, his biggest tool will decline sooner rather than later. That will impact him not only on the base paths but also in the outfield."
Mayes goes on to suggest packaging Duran with the organization's No. 2 prospect, shortstop Marcelo Mayer, in a deal that "would be hard for any team to turn down."
The trade would not be worth it, however, if the return is not a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. Mayes wants to see Seattle's George Kirby, who posted a 3.53 ERA in 33 games last year, or Logan Gilbert — who threw a league leading 208 2/3 innings with a stunning 0.887 WHIP and solid 3.23 ERA (9th in the American League) — come to the Red Sox for Duran and Mayer.
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