The Toronto Blue Jays were the first team to meet with outfielder Juan Soto, the obvious prize of the offseason's free agent class. Their interest in signing Soto is genuine and their pockets run deep. But how would signing Soto mesh with the team's long-term plans?
The Blue Jays haven't won a postseason game since 2016. They have not won the American League East since 2015. Although they qualified for the playoffs three times in a four-year span (2020-23) and narrowly missed the cut after their 91-win campaign in 2021, Toronto has yet to materialize a deep playoff run despite a talented core of young players.
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The best of the homegrown bunch is first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
A four-time All-Star, Guerrero slashed .323/.396/.544 and made his fourth consecutive American League All-Star team in 2024. The 2021 AL MVP award runner-up turns 26 next March.
Guerrero has one year remaining before he's eligible for free agency, and is projected to earn $28.9 million in his final season of arbitration eligibility.
If Soto were interested in signing a one-year contract, questions about Guerrero's future in Toronto would be moot. Soto is not interested in signing a one-year contract. The consensus opinion within the baseball industry is that Soto is aiming to exceed the value of Shohei Ohtani's record 10-year, $700 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
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So, what is the Blue Jays' plan for Guerrero? According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the possibilities run the gamut from a trade to a long-term contract extension. While Heyman placed Guerrero on a short list of offseason trade candidates, he also noted "The Jays will first try to lock him up, with the price tag likely to hit $350M."
Soto and Guerrero might be the priciest question marks facing the Blue Jays' front office, but they're far from alone.
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Chris Bassitt, Bo Bichette, Chad Green, Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson and Dillon Tate are eligible for free agency after the 2025 season. George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Daulton Varsho and Alejandro Kirk are eligible for free agency following the 2026 season.
For those reasons, selling Soto on the long-term future of the franchise might be more difficult for the Jays than for some of his other suitors. The major league roster will look very different in Toronto two years from now. Whether it includes Soto — or Guerrero — looms as a huge question over the offseason.
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