Former President Donald Trump holds a narrow two-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris among registered voters in the key battleground state of Michigan, according to a new poll published just five days ahead of the election.
Michigan voters are nearly equally split among the two major party candidates. Michigan, with its 15 Electoral College votes, is one of the handful of states likely to determine the outcome of the race between the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees. Polls show a closely divided race in the Great Lakes State, which has bounced between Democrats and Republicans in recent elections.
Both candidates have devoted a substantial amount of time campaigning in Michigan over the past few weeks in hopes of winning over the last few undecided voters while convincing their bases to head to the polls. This week, Harris campaigned in Ann Arbor, home to the University of Michigan.
A poll of 1,003 registered Michigan voters conducted by The Washington Post between October 24 and 28 found Trump up 47 percent to Harris's 45 percent in the state. However, when accounting for likely voters, Harris leads Trump by one point, 47 percent to 46 percent.
Both Trump's lead among registered voters and Harris's among likely voters fall within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. The Cook Political Report labels the presidential race in Michigan a "toss-up."
In both electorates, Green Party candidate Jill Stein secured 1 percent of the vote, while six percent either skipped the question or had no opinion of which candidate they would vote for. Thirty percent of respondents already voted in the election.
The poll found that more people find Trump both favorable and unfavorable than Harris in the state, with 46 percent finding Trump favorable and 48 holding an unfavorable view of him, while 45 percent have a favorable view of Harris and 47 percent have an unfavorable view of her.
Newsweek has reached out to Harris's and Trump's campaigns for comment via email on Thursday.
Individual polls have shown both Harris and Trump up in the state. A Susquehanna Polling & Research poll, conducted among 400 likely voters from October 23 to 27, showed Harris leading Trump by 5 points, 51.7 percent to 46.6 percent. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Meanwhile, an Emerson College poll, conducted among 1,000 likely voters from October 25 to 27, showed Trump up 1 point, 49 percent to Harris's 48 percent. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Aggregate polls, updated daily with new information, show Harris slightly up in the state. Pollster Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin finds Harris with a just over 1 percentage point lead, 48.5 percent to Trump's 47.4 percent, a similar result to FiveThirtyEight's aggregator, with Harris at 48 percent to Trump's 46.9 percent. RealClearPolling shows a narrower 0.4-point margin for Harris.
Michigan was Biden's strongest battleground state in 2020. He carried it by 2.8 points, flipping it back to Democrats after Trump won it by 0.3 points in 2016. But the state has been a concern to Democrats this year, particularly amid outrage from the state's Muslim-American community over the Biden administration's handling of the war between Israel and Hamas.
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