Trust funds that shore up Social Security benefits might run out of money within six years if Donald Trump wins this November, a report has stated.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a nonpartisan public policy think-tank, said that Trump's economic plans would "dramatically worsen Social Security's finances" as it faces a total depletion of its trust funds that help pay retirement, survivor and disability benefits for tens of millions of Americans. If not addressed, benefits could automatically slashed by around 20 percent in 2034, the CRFB said.
In his bid for the White House, Trump has pledged to end taxes collected on Social Security retirement benefits, which would directly impact the Social Security Administration's (SAA) ability to fund benefits. Other policies, including ending taxes on tips, imposing tariffs and accelerating deportation of undocumented migrants, would also indirectly impact the SSA's finances.
Altogether, the CRFB found Trump's policies would increase Social Security's 10-year cash shortfall by $2.3 trillion through fiscal year 2035, which would advance the program's insolvency by three years, bringing it forward to 2031. It would also increase the reduction to benefits, up to a 33 percent across-the-board cut in 2035, the think-tank said.
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Ending taxation on Social Security benefits would result in around $950 billion in revenue loss for the SSA, according to the CRFB. Some 40 percent of benefit recipients currently pay federal income taxes on retirement, spousal and disability benefits—not including Supplemental Security Income (SSI), according to the SSA.
Nixing tip taxation would cost the SSA $900 billion by 2025, the think-tank reported. Together, increased deportations and tariffs would also shave $400 billion from the SSA's funding coffers. Many undocumented immigrants have payroll taxes deducted from their paychecks to support the fund but never qualify for benefits, making them a net positive for the program.
The CRFB said it did not produce an equivalent report on Democratic nominee Kamala Harris' economic policies as there would be negligible impacts on Social Security.
The CRFB is not the only think-tank that has said Trump's policies could worsen the SSA's outlook. The Tax Foundation said earlier this year that without a pathway in place to recoup the revenue loss, Trump's Social Security taxes cut would reduce tax revenue by about $1.4 trillion from 2025 to 2034, and would "likely accelerate the insolvency of the trust funds."
Recent polling found that Trump's plan to ax taxes on Social Security income was appealing to voters. An ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted between October 4 and 8 among 2,631 adults found that Trump's promise to end taxes levied on Social Security benefits was the most popular economic proposal of the 2024 presidential race, with 55 percent of those responding strongly supporting the idea, and 85 percent supporting the proposal overall.
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