President-elect Donald Trump could swiftly push Russia out of Ukraine, according to a 2024 Nobel Prize winner, who said that such a move would also enhance his capacity to counter China's economic power.
"Trump still could score a quick and impressive win against China: by turning Russia entirely out of Ukraine and restoring the pre-invasion borders," Simon Johnson and Oleg Ustenko wrote in an article published Tuesday by Euromaidan Press.
Johnson received the 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics for his contributions to the field of political economy and his work on economic institutions, while Ustenko served as economic adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky between May 2019 and March 2024.
The pair argued that Trump's desire to "confront China economically and strategically" would be strengthened by first "crushing Russia," claiming that this would "boost US prestige around the world and strengthen Trump's hand in dealing with China on other issues."
"It would also be straightforward," they added, citing Russia's heavy dependence on oil exports. "Trump can cut Russian net revenue from these exports to essentially zero from his first day. Without this revenue, the Russian war machine will grind to a halt."
Newsweek has contacted the Russian Foreign Ministry for a response to the article.
The Russian oil and gas sector forms a significant part of the country's economy, accounting for the lion's share of its exports and contributing 30.9 percent of its federal budget in 2023 according to the Atlantic Council, citing the Russian Ministry of Finance's projections for that year. While revenues have fallen steeply since the invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent imposition of sanctions on Moscow's energy exports, the country's economy has endured through illicit trade flows to Europe as well as strengthening ties with other non-G7 nations.
"On his first day in office, Trump can announce that he will impose heavy US sanctions on any company that pays more than $15 per barrel for Russian oil (and on anyone who participates in any transaction above that level)," they wrote on Tuesday. "Any country that is deemed not to be fully cooperative with this policy should expect to face punitive tariffs."
In late 2022, after considering the country's natural resources too critical for the global market to outlaw entirely, G7 nations set a $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian oil, a level that has remained unchanged since.
However, Johnson and Ustenko said that an effective reduction in this price cap would put pressure on Moscow to give up on the invasion.
"A much lower oil-price cap, backed up with stronger sanctions against companies and countries that trade illegally with Russia, would leave Putin with no choice but to withdraw from Ukraine," they wrote.
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