Extreme weather caused by climate change has contributed to illegal migration at the U.S.-Mexico border, according to a new study.
Immigration was a huge issue in Tuesday's presidential election, where former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, beat Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, after bashing the Biden-Harris administration's handling of the southern border and promising mass deportations of an estimated 11 million people in the U.S. illegally.
A study titled "Weather deviations linked to undocumented migration and return between Mexico and the United States," published on Monday in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found that people from agricultural areas in Mexico were more likely to cross the border illegally after droughts and less likely to return to their original communities when extreme weather continued.
Researchers analyzed daily weather data and survey responses from 48,313 people from 1992 to 2018. They focused on roughly 3,700 people who crossed the border without documents for the first time.
They also analyzed 84 of Mexico's agricultural communities where growing corn was dependent on weather. The researchers correlated a person's decision to migrate and return with abnormal changes in temperature and rainfall in their original communities during the corn growing season from May to August.
The study found that those experiencing drought had higher migration rates than those with normal rainfall. Additionally, people were less likely to return to Mexico from the U.S. when their original communities were unusually dry or wet.
Extreme Weather in Mexico
Climate change has affected communities around the world by exacerbating extreme weather from droughts that are longer and drier to heat that is deadlier to storms that are rapidly intensifying and creating record-breaking rainfall.
In Mexico, drought has dried up reservoirs, causing severe water shortages and drastically reduced corn production, which has threatened the livelihoods of those living in the country of almost 130 million people. Meanwhile, researchers said Mexico's mean annual temperature is expected to increase up to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit by 2060.
Extreme weather in Mexico is likely to economically devastate rural communities that are dependent on rain-fed agriculture, according to researchers.
Developing Countries Bear the Brunt of Climate Change
Filiz Garip, a researcher in the study and professor of sociology and international affairs at Princeton University, said advanced countries have contributed far more to climate change than developing countries that bear the brunt.
Garip said migration "is not a decision that people take up lightly...and yet they're being forced to make it more, and they're being forced to stay longer in the United States" because of extreme weather.
Not everyone is impacted the same way by extreme weather events nor do they respond the same way, Garip said, "and the typical social and economic advantages or disadvantages also shape how people experience these events."
What Are President-Elect Trump's Climate Policies?
The Biden-Harris administration has focused on fighting climate change with policies that promote clean energy like the Inflation Reduction Act—which is expected to reduce U.S. emissions by roughly 40 percent by 2030.
On the flip side, Trump's proposed energy policy is rooted in boosting the production of fossil fuels such as oil, natural gas and coal, which are the main causes of climate change.
The president-elect has promised to dismantle what he calls Democrats' "green new scam" and said America will "drill, baby, drill" under his administration.
Trump said he would expand oil drilling on public lands and offer tax breaks to oil, gas and coal producers.
This article includes reporting from The Associated Press.
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