Cleveland Guardians ace Shane Bieber is set to have one of the winter's more interesting free agency negotiations. Bieber made a few starts in 2024 but quickly saw his season end due to an elbow injury.
Because of this, Bieber won't be ready for the beginning of the 2025 season so a one-year, "prove it" deal doesn't quite make sense here. Spotrac projects him to land a six-year, $147 million contract, but I don't know how reasonable that is. More than likely, I'd expect Bieber to land a hefty one-year deal with club options over the next few seasons.
FanSided's Nick Villano recently projected Bieber wouldn't be returning to Cleveland though. The righty won a Cy Young in 2020 and has been the Guardians' ace for years, but Villano predicts he'll cut ties to sign with the hated Houston Astros.
"They need to make upgrades in the pitching staff, as they build around Ronel Blanco and Spencer Arrighetti," Villano wrote. "Bieber would give them a spark in the middle of the season, and it could solidify the best rotation in the American League if Bieber has his best stuff."
The fit makes sense, but Bieber's deal will likely come down to whichever team is willing to take the biggest risk on him. Predicting a signing like this is so difficult because Bieber could love it in Cleveland, but if the Guardians offer him a one-year deal and Houston offers him a five-year deal, the decision is very easy.
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