Vice President Kamala Harris' focus on abortion rights in her campaign for the White House could help her win, according to experts and polling conducted on behalf of Newsweek.
More than half of Americans (53 percent) say they lean towards the Democratic position on abortion, compared to 36 percent who lean towards the Republican position, according to polling conducted in October.
While the overall number of people who say they lean towards the Democratic position has remained steady since July last year, there has been a bigger shift in those who say they "strongly lean" towards the Democratic position.
Some 33 percent of Americans say they now "strongly lean" towards the Democratic position, up from 28 percent in July last year. The numbers who say they "strongly lean" towards the Republican position has seen a slight shift, from 14 percent in July 2023 to 16 percent this October.
This article is part of Newsweek's tracker polling, where Americans have been asked questions on topics such as abortion, immigration and the war in Ukraine over the past 16 months.
This data is based on polling conducted exclusively by Redfield & Wilton Strategies on behalf of Newsweek between July 2023 and October 2024. Altogether, 19 polls were conducted, asking cumulatively 34,800 eligible voters about the key issues of the 2024 election.
The rise in those leaning towards the Democratic position on abortion has been largely down to women—from 51 percent just before Harris entered the race in July 2024 to 55 percent in October. These figures are up from 48 percent in July 2023.
About 32 percent of women said they lean towards the Republican position on abortion in October 2024—a level that has been fairly constant since Harris entered the race.
As of October 2024, a majority of men (52 percent) say they lean towards the Democratic position, while the number who "strongly lean" towards it has risen from 26 percent in July 2023 to 32 percent this October.
The number of men who lean towards the Republican position has risen from 33 percent in July 2023 to 40 percent this October, while those who strongly lean towards it has only shifted by two points, from 14 percent last July to 18 percent this October.
Overall, the findings suggest that Harris' campaign strategy of centering abortion rights could prove to be a winning one in a tight race against former President Donald Trump, where small margins in battleground states could swing the outcome.
Harris has repeatedly attacked Trump for the U.S. Supreme Court's decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization that overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, ending the national right to abortion. She has warned that a second Trump term would lead to a further erosion of reproductive rights, and has vowed to sign into law a bill restoring national abortion rights if she wins the presidency.
Americans largely oppose the abortion bans that have taken effect in Republican-led states since then. Bans with limited exceptions have taken effect in 13 states, while four other states ban abortion after just six weeks of pregnancy—before many women realize they're pregnant.
Trump has taken credit for appointing the justices who overturned Roe, but has sought to take a more cautious stance on abortion since it became a major election vulnerability for Republicans. He has repeatedly said that abortion should be left to the states and more recently said he would veto a national abortion ban in a second term, after previously declining to do so.
Harris' messaging on abortion "has reached pro-choice Americans who started paying closer attention to the campaign over the past few months," Paul Goren, a professor of political science at the University of Minnesota, told Newsweek.
"When these voters learn of Harris's support for abortion rights, they naturally conclude that the Democratic Party's position is closer to their own position. Since a majority of Americans favor abortion rights in most or all situations, it makes sense that the share of people who say they 'strongly lean' towards the Democratic position would rise."
The increase of those now strongly leaning toward the Democratic position on abortion "reflects a deepening of political polarization, which is what we've seen in recent years," according to Craig Agranoff, a professor of political marketing at Florida Atlantic University.
Americans are "becoming more entrenched in their positions" since the Dobbs decision, he told Newsweek. "Those who align with the Democratic view, often advocating for broader access to abortion, appear to feel a stronger need to assert their stance as states enact more restrictive measures. This strong lean growth suggests that the issue is becoming not just one of policy preference but one of identity for many voters."
Wendy Schiller, a political science professor at Brown University, said the issue of abortion could decide the election "precisely because it is so close."
Political observers in 2022 "vastly underestimated the importance of abortion rights in drawing voters to the polls, especially younger women, and that issue helped Democrats win key Senate races," she told Newsweek.
"It is possible that the same dynamic is now playing out in 2024 where the importance of abortion rights is undercounted in polling, meaning that respondents who support abortion rights may not feel comfortable saying that in response to cell phone or landline polling but will vote that way."
Harris "has chosen a strategy of being very clear on her support for abortion rights and it is core to her platform; whether there will be another silent majority of voters on this issue in 2024 remains to be seen, but if 2022 is any indication, it may be just enough to lift her to victory," she said.
Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University, said the trends reflect continuity rather than change on the issue.
"This is not too surprising given it is an issue about which most voters have clear views and have considered carefully, most likely for years. People have firm, long-held beliefs about abortion," he told Newsweek.
"That said, there are hints that voters who favor abortion rights are moving closer to the Democratic Party's position on the issue... this too is perhaps unsurprising given the view that the Dobbs ruling caused Americans to lose reproductive rights across the country. Psychologists have established that people react quite strongly to perceived losses of this type, and the prospects for further losses, more so than the prospects for gains."
About 38 percent of voters said abortion was one of the issues that would affect their vote in November's election in the most recent survey of October 2024. Abortion ranked highest for Harris voters, with 58 percent saying it was among the issues most likely to determine their vote next month. The economy ranked second for them, with 55 percent saying the issue would determine how they vote.
Meanwhile, Trump voters cited the economy and immigration as their biggest issues, with only 20 percent saying abortion would affect their vote in November.
"The Harris campaign needs to run hard on the abortion issue because the public leans heavily in the pro-choice direction and many people are passionately committed to ensuring abortion rights," Goren said.
"This election may come down to how a few thousand people vote in two or three battleground states. The Harris campaign needs to use this issue to motivate swing voters in these states to back the vice president on Election Day. It could be the difference between winning and losing the presidency."
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