Most supporters of Vice President Kamala Harris want a tougher stance on tackling illegal immigration, according to polling conducted exclusively for Newsweek, which also shows that Americans feel the U.S. has lost control of the southern border.
Immigration policy is a top concern for voters in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election, with our polling showing that a majority of Harris voters agree with the overwhelming majority of Donald Trump voters on tackling the border crisis.
Harris voters want a hardline approach toward illegal immigration
In the most recent poll of October 2024, 68 percent of Americans say the federal government should adopt a more hardline approach on immigration, with only 10 percent opposing such measures. This has risen from 62 percent at the start of polling in July 2023, and suggests a growing consensus across party lines that is backed up by a closer look at voting intentions.
In October 2024's poll, those planning to vote for Donald Trump this year backed a more hardline approach by an unsurprising 87 percent—but even among those planning to vote for Kamala Harris, the figure was a clear majority of 53 percent, and in the previous month of September, it stood at 58 percent.
This article is part of Newsweek's tracker polling, where Americans have been asked questions on topics such as abortion, immigration and the war in Ukraine over the past 16 months.
This data is based on polling conducted exclusively by Redfield & Wilton Strategies on behalf of Newsweek, between July 2023 and October 2024. Altogether, 19 polls were conducted, asking cumulatively 34,800 eligible voters about the key issues of the 2024 election.
In response to the poll, Republican Rep. Mark Green, chair of the Homeland Security Committee, said that it is "no surprise that Americans are crying out" for tougher curbs on migration and border security.
However, Brad Jones, a professor of political science at UC Davis, told Newsweek that the need for "hardline action" would have been addressed if the bipartisan border security bill passed in Congress.
"If someone comes to believe some variation of the theme that undocumented immigrants pose an existential threat to Americans, they are very likely to agree that a hardline, punitive approach needs to be taken," Jones said.
"Ironically, both the claims about an 'uncontrollable border' and the need for 'hardline action' would have been addressed in the bipartisan legislation proposed in Congress earlier this year.
"Because Trump relies on these narratives to fuel the campaign, he was highly incentivized to get that bill killed. He succeeded and, at least up until now, is winning on the immigration issue."
Why is Kamala Harris tougher on immigration?
Harris's position on immigration has evolved, and while she's supported some tough policies, she also previously advocated for reforms that focus on fairness and humane treatment.
The VP has supported comprehensive immigration reform, which aims to provide pathways to citizenship, and she has been a strong advocate for Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA), which protects young immigrants who came to the U.S. as children.
She has been critical of policies from the Trump era, like family separations and the border wall. She also pledged to revive the failed bipartisan border security bill.
Harris faces pressure to address the electorate's concerns about illegal immigration. She has to balance appealing to Democrats and Republicans while solving perhaps the most complex conundrum facing the country.
Julia Gelatt, the associate director of the U.S. immigration policy program at the non-partisan Migration Policy Institute think tank, told Newsweek that Harris's position on illegal immigration is in response to polling, which shows voters trust Trump over her on the key policy matter.
"Images of chaos at the border, high numbers of border arrivals, and the very visible challenges that major cities have faced in meeting the needs of newly arriving migrants have all affected public opinion on immigration," Gelatt said.
Gelatt argues that Harris adopted a more conservative stance on immigration to increase support among voters who want a crackdown on illegal immigration.
"Harris seems to be hoping that a focus on the need for more border enforcement will help her win the trust of voters. Indeed, some polling data suggests that she has narrowed the gap with Trump on the issue.
"At the same time, we've seen Harris pairing her border focus with more traditional Democratic priorities on immigration, such as opening an earned pathway to citizenship to unauthorized immigrants and Dreamers who have been in the United States for decades."
Philip van Scheltinga, director of research at Redfield & Wilton Strategies told Newsweek: "When even Democratic voters are overwhelmingly unhappy with the situation as it has developed, then it is time for the Democratic Party to revisit their position."
Americans Think U.S. Lost Control Of Borders
Data suggests Americans believe the federal government has lost control over its borders.
When asked whether they believe the federal government has lost control over its borders, between 58 and 68 percent of Americans said "Yes" across the past 16 months, peaking in February 2024. In the most recent poll of October 2024, 63 percent said "Yes," while only 27 percent said "No."
That little more than a quarter of the population express confidence in the Biden-Harris border record could reflect negatively on Kamala Harris' performance in the November election.
This sentiment spans demographic lines but shows significant differences in political affiliation. Among Trump voters, nearly 80 percent expressed a belief that the U.S. does not have control over its borders, a number that has been steadily increasing.
In contrast, Harris voters remain split, with roughly half agreeing that the borders are out of control and the other half expressing confidence in the federal government's handling of the issue.
The data gathered shows a shift in public attitudes among Americans on matters concerning immigration policy.
Rep. Green said: "Joe Biden and his 'border czar' Kamala Harris may work to sweep this historic border crisis under the rug, but the numbers don't lie.
"Since the Biden-Harris administration began, CBP [Customs and Border Protection] has recorded more than 10 million encounters nationwide.
"At the same time, ICE's non-detained docket has continued to explode, leading to tens of thousands of known criminals at large in our communities.
Jones told Newsweek the Republicans spearheaded by the Trump campaign have been "successful at controlling the narratives about the border."
"The Harris campaign has not been very effective at pushing back against claims that the border is being overrun, claims that are mostly inaccurate.
"But because of this, large numbers of Democrats who have been exposed to some version of the narrative that the border is out of control endorse the belief that the U.S. has lost control over the border.
"Under any conditions, Republican identifiers, but especially Trump Republicans, will endorse the belief that the U.S. and especially the Biden Administration have no control over the border.
"The narrative of the border being overrun is Trump's signature narrative and one of his most effective tropes.
"Trump has driven the narratives about immigrant criminality. Despite the fact that claims about high levels of immigration crime are simply untrue, the narrative has stuck."
According to the Cato Institute, immigrants are less likely to commit crimes compared to U.S. citizens.
While immigration policy has traditionally been a rallying point for conservatives, these new numbers indicate that the debate is resonating with a wider base of the electorate, as evidence shows support for stronger immigration measures among Harris voters.
As election day is on the horizon, immigration will likely remain a top issue. The data suggests that both major parties may face increasing pressure from their bases to adopt firmer policies, potentially altering the policy platforms of candidates like Harris, who must navigate the evolving views of her supporters while appealing to a broader electorate.
The numbers point to one clear conclusion: Americans, regardless of their political leanings, are growing more critical of how the U.S. government handles immigration, and many want to see tougher action taken to secure the nation's borders.
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