After a snowy Thursday Night Football game to start the week off, we are onto the bulk of the NFL Week 12 betting slate, with a bunch of games going on for us to dive into.
There are 11 games total today, with the Falcons, Bills, Bengals, Jaguars, Saints and Jets all on their bye this week.
Of the 11 matchups, the last three games of the day are the three best games in terms of intrigue and matchups:
- San Francisco 49ers vs. Green Bay Packers, 4:25 p.m. ET
- Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks, 4:25 p.m. ET
- Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams, 8:20 p.m. ET
For this article specifically, we will be providing the best NFL player prop picks for Week 12.
A. Richardson o204.5 Pass. Yards (-110) Bet365
Detroit Lions vs. Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m. ET
Taking any sort of passing yards prop over with Richardson is definitely scary, but he showed some signs of improvement last week after getting benched. This matchup against the Lions is also one of the juiciest in the NFL for QB passing props.
On the season, Richardson has only gone over this number in two of his six starts, taking out one game in which he left early. Of course, in one game he went under, he recorded exactly 204 passing yards, so that would have been a brutal hook.
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Of course, one of the games in which he went over came last week in his first start since getting benched for a couple games. He threw for 272 yards against the Jets last Sunday, which marked a season-high in passing yards.
It is unlikely that Richardson is magically fixed after a brutal start to the season just because he was benched for a couple games, but it was an encouraging sign to see how he handled the benching.
The biggest reason this is a play, however, is the matchup against the Lions. The Colts generally want to run the ball as frequently as they can, but unfortunately for them, this is a tough Lions run defense.
Detroit has the third-best run defense according to DVOA, and on the season, the Lions have allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game.
That said, they have allowed the sixth-most passing yards per game and are generally a pass funnel. This is a low number for Richardson to clear -- understandably so when looking at his hit rate this season -- but with improved play post-benching and a good matchup against the Lions, we like the over in this one.
Anthony Richardson over 204.5 passing yards (-110): 1 Unit
George Kittle o45.5 Rec. Yards (-110) bet365
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks, 4:25 p.m. ET
Despite missing last week with a hamstring injury, Kittle is due back in the lineup this week, and he has a great opportunity against this Packers defense.
From Week 3 and on, the Packers have allowed the 11th-most receiving yards specifically to tight ends, and the sixth-most receptions as well. They are not the worst matchup in the world for TE props, but not a defense you would be scared of, either.
As for Kittle, he has had a very good season. This is a number that he has gone over in six of eight games, and in both games he went under, he still got to 40 receiving yards. So, he has shown the floor to get close to this number in every game this season, including one game when he went under this prop while recording exactly 45 receiving yards.
Not only that, but Kittle has shown a high ceiling as well, with 92 and 128 receiving yards against the Chiefs and Cowboys in back-to-back weeks, respectively.
Kittle has only played in two games without WR Brandon Aiyuk this season, and he went over this number in both of those games.
With no Aiyuk, there are more targets to go around for Kittle, and, as a reminder, Aiyuk is out for the remainder of the season with a knee injury.
George Kittle over 45.5 receiving yards (-110): 1 unit
Theo Johnson o21.5 Rec. Yards (-113) Caesars
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Giants, 1 p.m. ET
The biggest news heading into this game is the benching of Giants QB Daniel Jones (for financial purposes) as the Giants are moving on to Tommy DeVito for the remainder of the regular season.
It definitely does not feel great backing DeVito, admittedly, but Jones himself was not great this year and Johnson still came on over the last six weeks or so.
Johnson, the rookie TE for the Giants, has gone over this number in five of his last six games, and he actually reached at least 30 yards in all five of those games. So, there is some ceiling potential there for those looking to play a higher yardage total at longer odds.
The exciting part about backing Johnson is the high snap rate that he has received in the last five games specifically. He has played at least 85 percent of the snaps in each of N.Y.'s last five games, including 90 percent in three of them.
He is running routes as well, with a 71.7 percent route rate, which is 11th among tight ends since Week 6.
Along with his increased involvement, he has a great matchup against a Bucs defense that allows a ton of production to the tight end position.
Since Week 2, the Bucs have allowed the most receiving yards in the NFL specifically to TEs, on the fourth-most receptions as well.
To go even further, the Bucs also play zone coverage at the highest rate in the NFL, and Johnson has quietly been the Giants' second-best receiver when facing zone defenses.
He is only behind Malik Nabers in terms of yards per route run (1.57) against zone coverage. Look for Johnson to get loose in this matchup on Sunday.
Theo Johnson over 21.5 receiving yards (-113): 1 Unit
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