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That made it six times in eight games in which Robinson Jr. has gotten into the end zone, with a total of seven touchdowns on the year. He is the primary red zone running back for the Commanders, and he has an absolute dream matchup against one of the worst run defenses in the Cowboys.
Dallas has the the fifth-worst run defense according to DVOA, and it has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards per game. The biggest issue with the Cowboys defensive line is that it is unable to generate any push, evidenced by its second-worst stuff rate in the NFL, per FantasyPoints.
The Cowboys have allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL despite already had their bye week (several other teams have played more games).
The Commanders should be able to move the ball with ease against this Cowboys defense, and when they get close, they will give the ball to Robinson Jr, hopefully leading to him getting into the end zone.
Brian Robinson Jr. Anytime Touchdown (-138): 1 Unit
Aaron Jones Anytime TD (+130) FanDuel
Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears, 1 p.m. ET
It feels as though Jones has spent the past month in and out of the injury tent, but he has consistently played in the games and is consistently getting attempts, so the workload should not be an issue.
Despite not scoring a touchdown in four straight games, Jones has still been heavily utilized in the red zone, it just has not manifested itself in the form of a touchdown.
He has a combined 12 red zone rushing attempts in his last four games, with no touchdowns. For context, he also had 12 red zone rush attempts in the first four games of the season, and he recorded two touchdowns in that stretch.
So, Jones is still the lead back getting plenty of work in the red zone, and he has a great matchup against a soft Chicago run defense.
DVOA has the Bears with the second-worst run defense in the NFL (even worse than the Cowboys), as they allow the eighth-most rushing yards per game and the ninth-most rushing TDs to RBs.
Just last week, we saw Josh Jacobs have a good game against the Bears that included a rushing touchdown. Two weeks prior to that, two RBs for the Cardinals, Emari Demercado and Trey Benson, got into the end zone.
Look for Jones to break his Anytime TD streak on Sunday.
Aaron Jones Anytime Touchdown (+130): 0.50 Units
Dallas Goedert Anytime TD (+320) Caesars
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams, 8:20 p.m. ET
For the SNF game, Goedert is a great dart throw to score in primetime.
It has been a relatively down year for Goedert, who missed some time with a hamstring injury and has only scored once. He should, however, see increased usage with Eagles WR DeVonta Smith out with a hamstring injury, and he has a great matchup against this Rams defense.
L.A. has improved defensivelyh as the season has gone on, but one area where they have consistently struggled is guarding the tight end position.
On the season, the Rams have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends at 62.3 receiving yards per game. Since Week 5, that number has gone up to 69.3 receiving yards per game allowed to the TE position.
The Rams have also allowed the ninth-most receiving TDs to tight ends on the year, so it is not just yards.
Goedert has played in three games this season without either A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith. Unsurprisingly, two of those three games were his two biggest games this season, with 11 and eight targets.
Goedert's yards are a good play too, but he offers great value to score at the +320 odds we are getting on Caesars.
Dallas Goedert Anytime Touchdown (+320): 0.50 Units
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