Much of the U.S. might be in for a warmer winter than usual, according to a new report by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
The majority of the Southeast, South, Southwest, Midwest and Northeast are predicted to have a 33-to-60 percent chance of experiencing above-normal temperatures during this year's winter months. The northernmost parts of Alaska are also expected to be warmer than usual.
Only the Pacific Northwest, southern Alaska and the Upper Great Plains regions are forecast to see lower-than-normal temperatures.
"Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored from the southern tier of the U.S. to the eastern Great Lakes, eastern seaboard, New England and northern Alaska. These probabilities are strongest along the Gulf Coast and for most of Texas," NOAA said in its U.S. Winter Outlook, released on October 17.
"Below-average temperatures are most likely in southern Alaska, with below-average temperatures slightly favored from the Pacific Northwest to the northern High Plains."
This is because of a La Niña weather event that may develop over the winter.
"This winter, an emerging La Nina is anticipated to influence the upcoming winter patterns, especially our precipitation predictions," Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center, said in the report.
La Niña is characterized by cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, particularly near the equator, which affects the atmospheric circulation and leads to various weather changes worldwide. The Southern U.S. and parts of South America often experience drier and warmer conditions, and La Niña also often leads to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.
El Niño, on the other hand, is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the same regions, and can lead to the Southwestern U.S. experiencing more rainfall and floods.
"During an El Niño, what happens is you get anomalous warm water over the eastern Pacific and and sometimes the central Pacific as well," Kieran Hunt, a NERC Independent Research Fellow in Tropical Meteorology and AI at the University of Reading, previously told Newsweek. "During La Niña, essentially the reverse happens and you get a lot of cold water around the Peru coastline. This extends out into much of the central eastern Pacific."
The NOAA U.S. Winter Outlook also predicts that below-average rainfall is expected for much of the Southwest and Southeast, with the Pacific Northwest and Midwest seeing above-average rainfall.
"The greatest likelihood for drier-than-average conditions are in states bordering the Gulf of Mexico, as well as in Texas and southern New Mexico," the report said. "Much of California, the central Plains states and the I-95 corridor from Boston to Washington, D.C., have equal chances of below-average, near-average or above-average seasonal total precipitation."
The lower levels of rainfall are expected to exacerbate existing drought conditions in the southern states.
"Unfortunately, after a brief period in the spring of 2024 with minimal drought conditions across the country, more than a quarter of the land mass in the continental U.S. is currently in at least a moderate drought," Brad Pugh, operational drought lead with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said in the report. "And the winter precipitation outlook does not bode well for widespread relief."
The report also predicts that drought conditions will persist or worsen across the majority of the central and southern U.S. states.
"Widespread moderate to extreme drought continues across much of the Great Plains and in portions of the Rocky Mountains, especially farther south," the report said. "Drought conditions are expected to persist across the Great Plains. Drought is likely to develop or worsen across portions of the Southwest and Gulf Coast."
Drought conditions are expected to improve across the Midwest, Great Lakes region and portions of the northwestern U.S.
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