Red One box office explained: Why Dwayne Johnson’s movie is destined to flop

On paper, Red One should be a Christmas blockbuster – but with so much competition landing in theaters, its enormous budget, and uninspiring reviews, it’s highly unlikely it’ll be a box office success.

During the 2010s, Dwayne Johnson movies were guaranteed (if modest) box office hits. Baywatch, one of the worst films of the decade, was a commercial success. The Fast and Furious movies, bolstered by his rising star power in Hollywood, were huge hits. Moana transformed him into a Disney icon. And then you have the likes of Hercules, San Andreas, Rampage, and Skyscraper – all commercial wins.

In the 2020s, something changed. He attempted to change the hierarchy of the DC universe with Black Adam, but it effectively led to the implosion of the DCEU. He pared back his movie output (excluding his return in Fast X), and today, he’s returned to the big screen with Red One, his self-proclaimed “Christmas franchise film.”

Unfortunately for The Rock, Red One may be doomed from the get-go. It will make money, but going by early box office projections, it doesn’t look like it’ll be profitable.

Red One box office so far

Red One was released in international territories before the US, so it’s already made $28 million worldwide.

It hit cinemas in North America today (November 15), with box office experts estimating a domestic haul of anywhere between $25-40 million in its opening weekend. It comes during a quiet spell for US theaters, with Venom: The Last Dance topping last weekend’s box office with just $15.9 million.

There are two important things to consider. Firstly, it’s an increasingly rare Christmas movie (there hasn’t been an overt holiday movie released at this time of the year since 2018’s The Grinch) geared at viewers of all ages (but predominantly families), so it could have long legs through the festive period.

Secondly, it’s produced by Amazon MGM, so while it’s engineered a large marketing campaign, it can also rely on its streaming debut down the line if its theatrical run doesn’t go to plan.

Red One’s budget is a box office problem

Amazon MGM

Here’s why Red One is destined to be considered a flop: it has an estimated budget of $250 million, which means it’d need to make around $500 million to break even and become profitable. That’s a big ask for the launch of a new IP, even with stars like Dwayne Johnson and MCU star Chris Evans.

It’s not impossible, but it would be an extraordinary feat – especially if you look at the highest-grossing movies of 2024 so far. Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine are the only films to cross the $1 billion mark, followed by:

• Despicable Me 4 – $968 million
• Dune: Part Two – $714 million
• Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire – $571 million
• Kung Fu Panda 4 – $547 million
• Beetlejuice Beetlejuice – $450 million
• Bad Boys: Ride or Die – $404 million
• Venom: The Last Dance – $398 million
• Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes – $397 million

What do they all have in common? They’re sequels or new entries in revered franchises, and none of their budgets were as high as $250 million.

We don’t need to get into the weeds of why Red One had such a big price tag (there have been reports of Johnson’s on-set behavior adding an extra $50m to the budget), but the issue is clear: it cost too much money, and it doesn’t align with this year’s box office trends.

Red One has a lot of competition this Christmas

Poster Escape

It may be the only Christmas film in cinemas over the festive period, but Red One will face off against Gladiator 2, Wicked, and Moana 2 in the coming weeks.

Those are three big movies (Wicked could be the third movie to hit $1 billion), and that’s before we get to December: Kraven the Hunter, The Lord of the Rings: War of the Rohirrim, Mufasa: The Lion King, and Sonic the Hedgehog 3 are all coming to cinemas, and it’s possible they could shove Red One out of theaters.

For example, let’s look at next weekend’s projections: Gladiator 2 is eyeing a $65m opening weekend in the US, while Wicked is set to make at least $85 million. Their releases won’t do Red One any favors, so it’ll need strong word of mouth to maintain ticket sales… alas, it seems like it could struggle in that regard.

Red One is off to a bad start on Rotten Tomatoes

Warner Bros.

Red One has a 34% score on Rotten Tomatoes from 95 reviews, including our two-star review.

“Red One has all the makings of a Christmas movie. But The Rock and Chris Evans’ lacking chemistry, dull visuals, and an unoriginal plot leaves Amazon’s big-budget festive flick feeling as hollow as a chocolate Santa,” we wrote.

“[It’s] far from the worst movie of 2024 (sorry, Madame Web), but that’s part of the problem. Despite a star-studded cast, high production values, and fleeting moments of charm, it’s entirely forgettable.”

Who knows, maybe it’ll connect with audiences – but if you search Red One on X/Twitter, the consensus is overwhelmingly negative, which doesn’t bode well for its theatrical run.

Red One is in cinemas now. Check out other new movies you can watch this month and our best movies of 2024 so far.