Steelers vs. Browns Odds, Best Bets: Best ATS Picks for AFC North Battle

Steelers vs. Browns Betting Analysis

Both the Steelers and Browns made midseason changes at QB.

But while Mike Tomlin's move from Justin Fields to Russell Wilson has paid off with four straight wins, the Browns have not had the same luck.

Jameis Winston has been an upgrade at quarterback over Deshaun Watson since taking over midway through his team's Oct. 20 loss to Cincinnati.

But after leading the Browns to an upset win over Baltimore in his first start back in Week 8, Winston and the Browns have lost their last two games 27-10 to the Chargers and 35-14 to the Saints.

Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Preview

The Steelers aren't racking up style points, but they've found a way to win five games in a row. Thanks to a stout defense and a recently improved offense, Mike Tomlin's team is on a five-game winning streak, with victories over the Raiders, Jets, Giants, Commanders and Ravens.

Offensively, Wilson (six TDs and two interceptions in four starts) has opened up the passing game enough for Pittsburgh to average 27.3 points per game in his four starts. In six games with Fields as the starter under center early this season, Pittsburgh was averaging just 20 ppg, and Fields was held to less than 150 yards passing in four of those games.

While Wilson has sparked the offense in recent weeks, the defense has been solid all season. Pittsburgh is allowing the second-fewest points per game in the NFL at 16.2.

The Steelers D is coming off a dominant performance in which six field goals by kicker Chris Boswell (but no offensive touchdowns) proved enough for a win over the Ravens thanks to a dominant defensive effort. Baltimore turned the ball over three times in that game and lost the time of possession battle 23:38 to 36:22 in easily Lamar Jackson's worst game of an outstanding season to date.

Cleveland Browns Betting Preview

Watson's terrible play was impossible for the Browns to overcome early this season, even on solid days by the rest of this squad. The Browns started off 1-6 while scoring more than 17 points just once from Weeks 1-7.

Winston's insertion into the lineup after Watson tore his Achilles in Week 7 sparked a memorable upset win over the Ravens in Week 8. Winston has not solved all of Cleveland's problems by any means, though.

The Browns defense, a perceived strength after an excellent year in 2023, has not played well in five of the last six weeks. In fact, the Browns D produced -7 Expected Points Added or worse in Weeks 5, 6, 8, 9 and 11. A solid day in a losing effort against the Bengals on October 20 stands out as this defense's only positive game by EPA in the last six weeks.

With Nick Chubb (3.1 yards per carry in four games since returning to the lineup) and the running game struggling behind an offensive line that has been a disappointment (the Browns have run for less than 80 yards in four straight games), Winston is being asked to carry the offense.

He's had his moments the last few weeks, but that is (obviously) not a winning formula for Cleveland, especially against quality opposition.

Steelers vs. Browns Prediction

Taking the favorite to win big in divisional rivarly games is always a bit risky. Case in point: the Steelers and Browns have split their last four matchups over the previous two seasons.

Still, I expect a Cleveland offense that can't run the football -- and probably won't have much success on that front against the Steelers, who are allowing just over 90 rushing yards per game -- to be in for a long night against T.J. Watt and the Steelers.

Winston has avoided turnovers in two of his three starts this year, but did throw three killer picks against the Chargers on Nov. 3. He also has been sacked a total of nine times by the Chargers and the Saints the last two weeks. Tonight, he's facing a Pittsburgh defense that is tied for fourth in the league with 19 turnovers forced.

It wouldn't shock me to see the reeling Cleveland D buck up and keep Pittsburgh's run-heavy offense in check.

At some point, though, the Steelers D -- which gets to tee off on Winston after dealing with dynamic running QBs Jayden Daniels and Jackson the last two weeks -- will make enough plays for the visitors to not only win, but cover.

Steelers vs. Browns Best Bets

We like the Steelers to cover, and we also like them by a touchdown on the alt line. This one should be low-scoring, but we're not quite bullish on the under at the low total of 36.5.

• Steelers -3.5 (-110 at bet365) 1 unit
• Steelers alt spread -6.5 (+138 at FanDuel) 0.50 units

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