Russian troops are making significant advances in the west of the Donetsk region, where they are heading towards a key logistics hub, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), whose map shows the state of the play on the frontline.
In its update on Monday, the Washington, D.C., think tank said that Russian troops "are coming closer to enveloping the town of Velyka Novosilka," where they can threaten Ukrainian supply lines leading to the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
These advances chime with an assessment the previous day that Moscow's forces "could attempt to envelop Velyka Novosilka via its eastern and northeastern flanks."
The town is an important supply line for Ukraine's troops and its loss would be "significant and potentially detrimental" to Kyiv's ability to defend the nexus between the Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.
The think tank said the town's capture would allow Russian forces to more actively threaten the towns of Hulyaipole and Orikhiv and also be a stepping stone for an attack into the southeastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
The ISW's latest map marks how geolocated footage showed Russian advances on Sunday on the outskirts of the town. It also illustrates the reported capture on the same day by Moscow's troops of Zoria and Sontsivka—as well as three settlements further south.
Pro-Russian military bloggers have said that Moscow's troops made gains northeast and southeast of Velyka Novosilka, where elements of Russia's 5th tank brigade, and 37th motorized rifle brigade are engaged in fighting Ukraine's forces.
The ISW's latest map and update also outlined efforts by Russian forces southeast of Kurakhove and Russian platoon-sized mechanized assaults east of Romanivka towards which Moscow managed to advance.
These Russian advances in western Donetsk do not automatically signal the collapse of Ukraine's front line, although they may be "operationally significant" if the Russian command "properly exploits these recent tactical successes, which is not a given," according to the think tank.
Newsweek contacted the Russian and Ukrainian defense ministries for comment by email.
It comes as Ukrainian monitoring group DeepState, cited by independent outlet Agentstvo, said on Monday that Russian forces had captured 90 square miles over the previous week—the biggest advance so far this year.
Russian gains in November are already higher than for the whole of October, which itself saw the most gains since the start of the war, it added.
The change in momentum on the frontline in Donetsk comes amid concerns about what an incoming Trump administration will mean for future military aid for Ukraine, and after the White House confirmed that it had given Kyiv permission to use ATACMS long-range missile systems to strike inside Russian territory.
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