What's New
Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine heads into the New Year after 12 months in which Moscow made territorial gains and Kyiv opened a new front in Russia's Kursk region. A map by Newsweek outlines some of the key frontline developments in 2024.
Newsweek has contacted the Russian and Ukrainian defense ministries for comment.
Why It Matters
How the battle lines shifted in 2024 will form the backdrop to any proposed negotiations to end the war started by Putin, which enters its fourth year on February 24.
The grim anniversary will be just over a month after Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20 amid anticipation over whether the switch from president-elect to president can end hostilities as quickly as he has repeatedly pledged.
After a tough year, Ukrainian troops face exhaustion, with Russian forces making gains in the Donbas region which have increased in pace. Ukraine is also struggling to hold onto territory it captured in its Kursk incursion which is key to Kyiv's leverage.
Yuriy Boyechko, CEO and founder of the charity Hope for Ukraine, told Newsweek that Putin was focused on a January 20 deadline for Kursk where "Russian forces are throwing the kitchen sink at the Ukrainians."
Russian defense minister Andrei Belousov said on December 16 the four Ukrainian regions Putin declared in September 2022 as annexed—Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Luhansk and Donetsk, would be in Moscow's complete control in 2025.
This reiterates a pledge Putin made on June 14 that he would agree to a ceasefire and peace talks only if Ukraine withdraws from the four oblasts, abandons plans to join NATO, and recognizes Crimea and Sevastopol as Russian, which Kyiv has rejected.
What To Know
Ukraine launched its incursion into Russia's Kursk oblast on August 6. Moscow's response was slow but now bolstered by North Korean troops, it has since recaptured a sizeable amount of the seized territory.
"Kursk was the Ukrainian large offensive of the year, where they managed to capture over 1,200 square kilometers (463 square miles) relatively quickly. However, they have now lost over half of what they initially took," Emil Kastehelmi, military analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group, told Newsweek.
In Ukraine, the biggest frontline changes in Ukraine were in central and southern Donetsk oblast. After Avdiivka fell in February, Russian troops made more gains.
"Beginning from June and July, a trend was noticed—the Russians were able to capture an increasing amount of land each month," Kastehelmi said. "Ukraine lost the most land in November, December will likely be a bit less problematic for Ukraine."
By mid-December, Russian forces were within a couple of miles of Pokrovsk, the hub whose capture would deliver Putin a boost in his ambition of controlling the whole region.
Maps by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) from January 2 and December 17 showed changes over the year in neighboring Luhansk oblast, where assessed Russian control of territory had increased south of Kupiansk and west of Bakhmut.
"Russians pushed the frontline to and over the Zherebets River in Luhansk and Kharkiv oblast border area, made their way to Oskil river and opened up a new attack direction north of the city of Kharkiv," said Kastehelmi.
"However, the Russian progress in Luhansk and Kharkiv oblasts has not changed the dynamics of the war much—the most significant events have occurred in Donetsk."
As well as Russia's summer offensive in Donetsk, its troops returned to the Kharkiv region further north, while in the south, mounted assaults in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
ISW maps showing assessed and claimed Russian control of Zaporizhzhia had only marginally increased and pockets of Ukrainian counteroffensives had decreased, in particular south of Mala Tokmachka and north of Marfopil.
"Generally, this year saw more movement than 2023, but most of it happened between August and December, while the first half of the year was mostly static," said Kastehelmi.
Konstantin Sonin, a Russian-born professor at the University of Chicago's Harris School of Public Policy and a Putin critic, said by the end of 2023 and the start of 2024, Russians had started using air attacks to destroy a whole area before moving in with infantry.
"So the slow advances of the Russian troops over 2024 saw them take territory with completely demolished buildings. There's no maneuver warfare—it's just like sheer destruction," he told Newsweek.
In November 2024, the Biden administration allowed Kyiv to use ATACMS to strike inside Russian territory, forcing Moscow to move its aircraft further away. "This immediately lowered the amount of air attacks that Russia could use against Ukraine," Sonin added.
What People Are Saying
Emil Kastehelmi, military analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group, told Newsweek: "Beginning from June and July, a trend was noticed—the Russians were able to capture an increasing amount of land each month."
Yuriy Boyechko, CEO and founder of the charity Hope for Ukraine, said in Kursk "the Russian forces are throwing the kitchen sink at the Ukrainians."
Konstantin Sonin, professor at Chicago University's Harris School of Public Policy, said Russian air attacks had caused "sheer destruction."
What Happens Next
The first months of 2025 will be critical for both sides which will likely seek territorial advantages ahead of any potential negotiations.
Trump's suggestion that he wants a swift deal comes amid uncertainty over what his team has planned when he enters the Oval Office, and whether its suggestions are acceptable to Putin and Zelensky.
The Ukrainian president told Le Parisien that he does not want to freeze the conflict as a prelude to talks and that Trump "knows about my desire not to rush things at the expense of Ukraine."
"The Trump administration will make a good faith effort to organize a cease-fire," said Sonin. "The problem is they have much more leverage over Zelensky than over Putin."
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