What's New
The military junta ruling Myanmar, an ally of Russia which also has close ties to China, has suffered a series of major military losses to insurgents in the western Rakhine and Chin states in recent days that have highlighted its weakening hold in the Southeast Asian country.
The government did not immediately respond to a Newsweek request for comment.
Why it Matters
The military reverses push the junta back into even fewer strongholds after it was forced to retreat earlier in the year in eastern and northern parts of the country.
Following the surprise fall of Syria's five-decade dictatorship earlier this month, the numerous rebel groups fighting the junta have been emboldened to believe that they could end the domination that the military has had since seizing power in the country formerly known as Burma nearly seven decades ago.
If the junta were to fall, it would have geopolitical consequences since it has been one of Russia's strongest diplomatic allies and gets much of its weaponry from there, although it also has ties to neighboring China, which is more likely to try to prevent the fall of the military government.
What to Know
The Arakan Army (AA), fighting for self-determination in Rakhine state, said that it had seized control of the military's Western Command headquarters in the town of Ann on December 20 after weeks of intense fighting. It showed photographs of a Myanmarese brigadier general among other officers it had captured there.
Ann was the second of 14 military commands to fall to insurgent groups after the command at Lashio in northeastern Myanmar, near the border with China, fell in August to the Three Brotherhood Alliance, which includes the AA.
Myanmar's military suffered a further blow on Sunday when the Chin Brotherhood announced that it had overrun the 274th Infantry Battalion in the mountain town of Mindat in Chin State, which borders India.
Even before the recent rebel advances, a recent investigation by the BBC World Service showed that the military controls less than a quarter of Myanmar—although that includes the capital Naypyidaw and the commercial capital and biggest city, Yangon—nearly four years after seizing power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi.
The state-run Global New Light of Myanmar quoted junta leader Min Aung Hlaing as saying in a message on December 22 that his government was committed to peaceful coexistence of communities, but making no direct mention of the recent fighting.
"He underlined that the political issue, in a way, should be resolved through political means, and demands must be addressed through political methods but not handled in armed struggle. Just as no human society accepts armed terrorism, individuals must oppose such actions," it said.
Min Aung Hlaing is the subject of an arrest warrant request from the International Criminal Court's top prosecutor over alleged crimes against humanity targeting the Rohingya Muslim minority.
What People are Saying
Josh Kurlantzick, a senior fellow for South and Southeast Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank, told Newsweek: "I think the junta's position is quite bad, given how little they control of the country. But I think a rapid collapse is unlikely given the fractures in the resistance and the role of China."
The Arakan Army Info Desk said on its Telegram channel, "The fascist military council troops are losing ground day by day and are abandoning their camps one by one. The Arakan Army troops are also continuing to intensify their offensives."
Retired U.S. Army Lieutenant Colonel Miemie Winn Byrd, a professor at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii, wrote in The Diplomat: "The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria has sparked a surge of hope among Myanmar's resistance forces (...) Key territories and regional headquarters have fallen to resistance forces. Ground battles are consistently being lost, defections are rising, and morale among troops has plummeted. Despite its superior firepower, the junta teeters on the brink of collapse."
What's Next
Myanmar's armed forces are preparing to defend the town of Gwa, in southern Rakhine state and around 160 miles by road from Yangon, according to The Irrawaddy news website. There have already been clashes in the area.
The military will also seek to concentrate its efforts in its central heartland, where it faces a challenge from People's Defence Forces militias. The escalating fighting casts doubt over the junta's plan to hold an election next year.
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