A top Chinese economist has been censored after his candid remarks about China's lackluster economic growth, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Newsweek has contacted China's Foreign Ministry for comment via email.
Why It Matters
The world's second-largest economy has continued to face headwinds since the end of Beijing's strict pandemic-era measures in late 2022, including a real estate crunch, tepid consumer confidence and high youth unemployment.
Many economists, including former Chinese Premier Li Keqiang, have cast doubt on the accuracy of China's growth figures. However, publicly questioning these numbers remains risky, as critics of Xi's policies often face investigations, detention or censorship.
What To Know
Gao Shanwen, the chief economist at SDIC Securities and a former central bank official, has cast doubt on the accuracy of China's official gross domestic product reports, a long-standing point of skepticism among many analysts.
Last month, the veteran economist suggested at an event that the country's GDP figures could be overstated by several percentage points, angering China's president, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.
Although Gao has reportedly held on to his job, according to the sources, he has been banned from making public statements for an unspecified period of time.
"We do not know the true number of China's real growth figure," Gao said at the December 12 event, which was hosted by a Chinese think tank and the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
In a report published last month, Gao compared China's economic situation to that of other nations that have experienced crises in their property sectors, noting that those countries' economies had contracted by an average -7 percent over three years.
China's GDP growth dropped to 3 percent in 2022 amid extended COVID-19 lockdowns. Gao highlighted inconsistencies in the government's data, estimating a "cumulative overestimation of 10 percentage points," which he said aligned with a significant loss of 47 million jobs in urban areas.
Gao went on to say the numbers would add up if GDP expansion figures were revised down to 2 percent.
What People Are Saying
Gao Shanwen, the chief economist at SDIC Securities, said at the event on December 12: "My own speculation is that in the past two to three years, the real number [for GDP growth] on average might be around 2 percent, even though the official number is close to 5 percent."
Mary Gallagher, the dean at the University of Notre Dame's Keough School of Global Affairs, wrote in World Politics Review on December 31: "The immediate problem of the economy boils down to anemic growth. Necessary limits on investment-led expansion and the property sector have cut off traditional avenues of growth, while China's household consumption did not make the comeback that many expected with the end of Beijing's draconian 'Zero COVID' policy."
What Happens Next
China has set a GDP growth target of about 5 percent after reporting 5.2 percent for 2023.
During his New Year's Eve address, Xi touted recent policies designed to stimulate growth as successful and pledged more proactive measures going forward.
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