The odds-on Fox News host Pete Hegseth being confirmed as defense secretary by the Senate have fallen significantly over the past 24 hours according to betting website Polymarket.
It came after CNN released details of a police report related to a 2017 incident in which a woman alleged Hegseth sexually assaulted her in a hotel room, which he strongly denies.
On Polymarket, Hegseth's confirmation odds went from 74 percent at 7 a.m. ET on November 21 to 52 percent at 10:50 a.m. ET on Friday after the CNN story was published.
Trump nominated Hegseth, a former decorated National Guard officer turned Fox News commentator, on November 12 commenting: "Pete has spent his entire life as a Warrior for the Troops, and for the Country. Pete is tough, smart and a true believer in America First."
On Polymarket, which claims to be "the world's largest prediction market," gamblers use cryptocurrency to purchase shares in certain outcomes taking place, such as Trump's election victory. Each share is valued at between $0.00 and $1.00, and the higher the figure the more likely the market thinks that event is to take place.
Betting on Polymarket is banned in the U.S., though it is believed gamblers have been using virtual private networks (VPNs) to get around this. On November 13 the Manhattan apartment of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan was reportedly raided by the FBI, who seized electronic devices but did not put him under arrest. Speaking to Newsweek, an FBI spokesperson said they "cannot confirm or deny or comment on the matter."
The 22-page police report, which CNN obtained via a public records request, relates to an incident which allegedly took place on October 8, 2017, the day after Hegseth addressed the California Federation of Republican Women at the Hyatt Regency Monterey Hotel.
An unnamed accuser, identified by the pseudonym 'Jane Doe,' said she found herself alone in a hotel room with Hegseth with no recollection of how she got there, and suspects she was spiked.
The woman said Hegseth physically blocked her from leaving the room then sexually assaulted her. A nurse said on October 12 she came into the Kaiser Permanente clinic in Oakland, California asking for a rape kit and the incident was reported for police.
According to the report Hegseth told officers the pair had a consensual sexual encounter during which he made sure she was "comfortable with what was going on between the two of them." He added, without elaborating, that the woman showed "early signs of regret" the following morning. No charges were brought against Hegseth over the incident.
Newsweek contacted Hegseth's attorney, Timothy Parlatore, and the Trump transition team for comment via email.
Speaking to Newsweek previously Parlatore said: "Although an allegation was made, it was fully investigated and Pete was cleared." According to CNN "the report does not say that police found the allegations to be false."
Hegseth's attorney had previously acknowledged he had entered into a settlement agreement with the woman which included the payment of an undisclosed sum and a confidentiality clause.
At 10:50 a.m. ET on Thursday Polymarket also offered odds of 31 percent on Matt Gaetz being confirmed as attorney general, 78 percent on Tulsi Gabbard being confirmed as director of national intelligence and 73 percent on Robert F. Kennedy Jr. being approved as secretary of health.
Each nominee requires the support of a simple majority of Senators to be approved by Congress. After the November 5 election the Republicans have 53 Senators to 47 affiliated with the Democrats according to The Associated Press.
It is extremely rare for a President's cabinet nominee to be rejected by the Senate, with this last happening in 1989 to President George H. W. Bush's secretary of defense nominee John Tower.
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