What's New?
Two of Vladimir Putin's key allies in Africa are pushing back against the presence of Russian forces in their countries, further threatening Moscow's foothold on the continent following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria.
Sudan has officially rejected a Russian request to construct a naval base on the Red Sea coast in Port Sudan, Amsterdam-based independent outlet The Moscow Times reported on December 18, citing a Sudanese intelligence official.
Russia reportedly offered Sudanese authorities a S-400 anti-aircraft missile system in an attempt to sway them into agreement, but fears over Western backlash caused the country to deny Moscow's request.
This was followed by Libyan Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh stating that he would resist any efforts by Russia to strengthen its military presence in the country.
"No patriotic person accepts the entry of a foreign country and imposing its hegemony, and we will not accept the entry of any foreign force except through official agreements and for the purpose of training. Any party that enters Libya without permission or agreement will be fought, and we cannot accept Libya being an international battlefield," Dbeibeh said during a conference in Tripoli.
Newsweek has contacted the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs via email for comment.
Why It Matters
The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad has put Russia's regional presence in jeopardy, casting uncertainty over the future of its military installations in the country—in particular the Tartus naval base, a key access point to the Mediterranean.
Reports indicate that Russia is considering a partial withdrawal from the country, shifting its focus toward strengthening ties with allies in the Maghreb and northeastern Africa to provide a supply line into the landlocked African nations and sustain its regional influence. The latest moves by Sudan and Libya, however, threaten this objective.
What To Know
Russia has sought to establish a naval base in Sudan since 2019, but internal strife and the onset of the civil war have delayed this prospect indefinitely.
Through the Wagner Group, Moscow has supported two factions of the incumbent military government—the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and the Sudan Armed Forces—while also vetoing United Nations resolutions calling for a ceasefire in the country.
Assad's departure also led analysts and government officials to claim that Russia may be transferring some of its military assets from Syria's Tartus naval base and Hmeimim air base to Libya. The Wall Street Journal reported, citing U.S. and Libyan officials, that Russian planes have already flown air-defense equipment from Syria to bases in Libya controlled by the Kremlin-backed warlord Khalifa Haftar.
What People Are Saying
Russia is taking the "necessary steps" to liaise with Syria's new leadership and secure the continued presence of its military bases in the country, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskovtold reporters.
Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto, however, said that Moscow has begun "transferring resources from its Syrian base at Tartus to Libya."
"That is not a good thing. Russian ships and submarines in the Mediterranean are always a concern," Crosetto continued, "and even more so if instead of being 1,000 kilometers away they are two steps from us."
During the recent news conference, Libyan Prime Minister Dbeibeh said that any transfer of Russian military equipment must be conducted "within the framework of agreements between countries."
"But for forces to enter by force and against the will of the Libyan people, we totally reject it," he added.
What Happens Next?
Russia may be able to successfully negotiate with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the group that spearheaded the surprise uprising against Assad, and maintain its military presence in the country. If it is unable to do so, however, the dual rejections from Libya and Sudan will further hamper its ability to exert a regional influence, already strained by its preoccupation with the Ukraine conflict.
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