Republicans are getting "very nervous" about North Carolina, according to political analyst and public opinion pollster Scott Rasmussen, as the latest polling shows Donald Trump and Kamala Harris neck-and-neck in the key battleground state.
With six days to go before Election Day, Rasmussen said that "the race remains too close to call," but he'd rather be in Donald Trump's position than Kamala Harris. "His edge in the southern swing states means he needs to win just one of the three 'Blue Wall' states while Harris needs to pull an inside straight and win all 3," he wrote on X.
However, that edge that Trump enjoyed in North Carolina is getting thinner. A poll by AtlasIntel compiled by FiveThirtyEight between October 25 and 29 shows Harris ahead in North Carolina with 49 percent over Trump's 48 percent, while a previous poll from Trafalgar Group conducted between October 25 and 28 gives Trump winning with 49 percent over Harris' estimated 46 percent.
As of October 29, about 40 percent of all registered voters in North Carolina—around 3.2 million people—had already cast their ballots, according to the state's board of elections, most of whom had done so through early in-person voting.
"Some R's are very nervous about NC... While I think Trump has the edge in the Tarheel State, there are reasons for his team to potentially be concerned," Rasmussen wrote on X.
However, Rasmussen said that if Trump wins Pennsylvania along with the other three Southern swing states—Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada—the Republican candidate would still win the Electoral College.
The election comes at a time when North Carolina is still recovering from the shock of Hurricane Helene, which struck the western region of the state on September 26, killing at least 96 people and leaving thousands without power and running water. It was the deadliest storm in the state in modern times, and the damages it caused are estimated to exceed $50 billion.
The devastating extreme weather disrupted the state's voting infrastructure, pushing state authorities to introduce changes to guarantee everyone gets to vote, including allowing officials to move polling locations and change hours. But it remains to be seen how many people in the affected areas will head out to vote on November 5 when their lives have yet to return to normal.
In response to a request for comment by Newsweek, the Trump campaign sent the following statement by Anna Kelly, spokesperson for the Republican National Committee:
"President Trump is a candidate for ALL Americans which is why he is winning in every battleground, including Georgia—his message resonates with voters across the country. As CNN reported, for the first time since 1984, more Americans now identify as Republicans because Kamala Harris and the Democrat Party's dangerously liberal policies have failed America. Harris broke our economy, border, and peace around the world, but President Trump will fix it."
It's hard to predict which way North Carolina will go. Mark Mitchell, head pollster at Rasmussen Reports, told Newsweek that Democrats should also be worried about the race in the state.
"Democrats should always have been worried about North Carolina because it was never as close as the polls showed," he said. "Our last two North Carolina polls were Trump +3 and Trump +5, and we are putting out a Georgia poll with Trump +6. Early voting patterns seem to confirm that there is once again a leftward polling miss, especially in states that were critical to Harris' win paths."
Rasmussen is one of the most well-known and well-respected pollsters. He said anyone telling you that "they know who's going to win, they're either lying to you or deluding themselves."
"The available data shows the race is close," he added.
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