What's New
Moldova has dismissed Russia's latest warnings over Transnistria as a tactic to spread "panic and distrust" against its pro-Western government, with experts warning this could be designed to pave the way for military actions by Moscow in Europe.
On Monday, state news agency Tass reported, citing comments from the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), that Moldovan President Maia Sandu "is preparing a plan for a military operation in Transnistria, no one can guarantee that she will not try to unleash a war."
RT later cited a report from the SVR that said Sandu was intent on establishing "control over Transnistria," including a "forcible seizure" of the region's power plant, and had drawn up plans to expel Russian forces from the breakaway state, which is legally recognized as Moldovan territory.
The Institute for the Study of War, a think tank in Washington, D.C., said in an assessment of Russian military operations on Monday that these efforts could amount to Russia spreading "panic and distrust in Moldovan society towards the pro-Western Sandu government. The Kremlin may also be setting information conditions for a false flag operation in Transnistria."
Newsweek has contacted the Russian Foreign Affairs Ministry by email for a response to the SVR's report and the ISW's statement.
Adrian Balutel, Sandu's chief of staff, said the accusations of an upcoming military operation were false and called the SVR's statements "serious and dangerous disinformation, designed to sow panic and distrust," the Romanian outlet Agerpres reported. Balutel added that resolving the territorial dispute over Transnistria would require "the complete and unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops, which are illegally stationed on the sovereign territory of the Republic of Moldova."
Similar accusations have arisen regarding Belarus, where pro-Kremlin Telegram channels have speculated that the U.S. is preparing for a coup against the incumbent regime of President Alexander Lukashenko. As evidence, one blogger cited the U.S. State Department's recent travel advisory for the country, which urged Americans in Belarus to "depart immediately" and warned about "the potential of civil unrest."
Newsweek has contacted the Belarusian Foreign Ministry for comment via email.
Why It Matters
As Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues, fears have arisen that Moscow's next target could be Moldova.
"Everything that we do to support Ukraine also means fostering stabilization with regards to Moldova," German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said in September. "It is clear what the greatest concern of the people here is: that if Ukraine falls, Moldova is the next country in line."
During Lukashenko's tenure, Belarus has transformed into a satellite state of the Russian Federation. The rhetorical support provided by the Kremlin-aligned government for Russia's activities in Ukraine and Lukashenko's offer to host Russian missiles on his territory have exacerbated fears that the Eastern European nation has been fully folded into Moscow's geopolitical arsenal.
What To Know
Since the end of the Cold War, Transnistria—officially the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic—has remained a self-proclaimed republic in Eastern Europe, unrecognized internationally but functioning as a de facto state. Since the armed conflict in the early 1990s, Russia has maintained a strong military presence in the unrecognized entity, despite calls for reintegration with Moldova, its parent state.
Transnistrian authorities have suggested unification with Russia, even though the region is still internationally recognized as part of Moldova. At the same time, Moscow has repeatedly warned that Moldova may try to reclaim control of the area by force.
What People Are Saying
The Moldovan Ministry of Foreign Affairs told Newsweek in a statement: "Claims that the authorities of the Republic of Moldova are preparing military actions in Transnistria are serious and dangerous disinformation, designed to incite panic and distrust. We reiterate that Chisinau remains firmly committed to the peaceful resolution of the conflict, without exception. A key step toward resolving the conflict is the complete and unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops, which are illegally stationed on the sovereign territory of the Republic of Moldova."
The Institute for the Study of War said in its assessment: "The Kremlin may be setting information conditions for a false flag in the pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria likely in a continued attempt to destabilize Moldova and hinder its integration into European Union."
Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean, as quoted in Agerpres on Monday, said: "I am once again observing a campaign of disinformation and even hysteria. In the public space, a falsehood and an apocalyptic scenario are once again being promoted that the Republic of Moldova intends to take control of the Transnistrian region, to create military scenarios. I mention once again: it is part of [Russia's] hybrid war."
What Happens Next
Moldovan authorities have denied the SVR's claims that Sandu is planning a military operation in Transnistria, which reports say is motivated by a dispute over the shipment of Russian gas to the country. In mid-December, the Moldovan parliament voted to impose a state of emergency in its energy sector amid a dispute with Russian giant Gazprom over unpaid debts, which Chisinau does not recognize.
Ukraine, through which Russian natural gas is transited, has decided to let its transit deal with Gazprom expire on December 31, further threatening Moldova's energy supplies.
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