The sudden downfall of longtime Syrian President Bashar al-Assad at the hands of a rapid rebel offensive has brought a dramatic new turn to Syria's nearly 14-year civil war. While opponents of the ousted government are elated, there are also deep-rooted concerns about the many uncertainties ahead.
Now, all eyes are on the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) group—a former Al-Qaeda affiliate—and its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, as questions arise as to his willingness and capacity to come through on promises to eschew extremism and oversee a more prosperous and inclusive future for Syria.
However, new frontlines are already being drawn.
Fears are mounting of a new fight along the lines of control between the insurgent coalition and the United States-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led faction that wields effective control over nearly a third of the nation in the north and east. Among the opposition ranks is the Syrian National Army, backed by U.S. NATO ally Turkey, which views the SDF as an offshoot of the separatist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly vowed to eradicate the PKK in Syria and Iraq, including during an interview with Newsweek in July and in subsequent comments delivered since Assad was ousted on December 8.
Tensions are now looming particularly heavy over the northern city of Kobani, which was once a symbol of the Islamic State militant group's (ISIS) defeat at the hands of the U.S.-SDF partnership.
Riad Darar, adviser to the presidency of the SDF's political wing, the Syrian Democratic Council, told Newsweek that the SDF stronghold along the Syria-Turkey border will soon "become a turning point" in another crucial battle.
"I believe there will be violent fighting, the end of which we do not know," Darar said. "We hope the Americans will continue to stand in the face of the attacks and prevent them because this does not serve stability in the region and opens a door that may not be closed in the matter of a political solution in Syria."
Darar also expressed worries about the orientation of HTS rule. He argued that the group, despite its amicable slogans, has so far proven "individualistic" and "does not seek the participation of the rest of the Syrian public, politicians and members of society who suffered from the injustice and oppression of the previous regime."
Such an approach, he said, has led to an assessment of "the new ruling party as wanting to monopolize power, and this is what all Syrians fear."
HTS was previously known as the Nusra Front, which operated as the Syrian branch of Al-Qaeda. Golani, who earlier fought against U.S. troops in Iraq, had initially allied with future ISIS founder Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi but later refused to merge with ISIS when it spread to Syria in 2013. Golani publicly rescinded ties with Al-Qaeda as well in 2016.
The Nusra Front forged strategic relationships with other Islamist groups that ultimately merged to become HTS in 2017. But as Golani now navigates a constellation of other Syrian factions seeking to reap their share of the fruits of victory against Assad, he must also contend with another front suddenly reopened in the country's southwest by an even more powerful U.S.-backed player.
Israel quickly seized on the chaos in Syria to launch an unprecedented campaign of land, air and sea strikes against former military sites in the neighboring nation while simultaneously sending troops to assume control over more land in the disputed Golan Heights.
Golani, whose family was displaced from the same Syrian region that Israel largely seized during the 1967 Six-Day War, told The New York Times in a subsequent interview that he did "not want any conflict" with Israel. His military chief, Abu Hassan al-Hamwi, later told the Agence France-Presse that the Israeli incursion was "unjust" and called on the international community to "find a solution to this matter."
Others, such as the Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party (SSNP), an ally of Assad's former government, have explicitly called for armed rebellion against Israeli occupation.
Newsweek reached out to the Israel Defense Forces, the Turkish Embassy to the United States, the SSNP and the Syrian Transitional Government for comment.
As the United Nations accused Israel of violating a 50-year truce agreement with Syria, a U.N. official recently told Newsweek that additional international peacekeeping forces were being deployed to the Golan Heights but that their "freedom of movement is severely constrained in the current context" of the Israeli incursion.
The fluid and fast-moving developments across Syria have put U.S. President Joe Biden's administration in yet another foreign policy bind just weeks before President-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House.
In remarks referred to Newsweek by the U.S. State Department, spokesperson Matthew Miller acknowledged the concerns expressed by both Israel and Turkey in their respective operations in Syria. At the same time, he called on Israel to uphold the 1974 ceasefire agreement in the Golan Heights and said the U.S. was in talks with both Turkey and the SDF regarding the tense situation in Kobani and elsewhere in northern Syria.
"We also believe it's important that no party take any actions that would further destabilize the situation in Syria at a time when we want to push to increase stability," Miller said, "and we'll continue to have that discussion with them."
On the ground, the U.S., which once aided the rebels that first took up arms against Assad in 2011, has relied on the SDF as its main partner against ISIS since 2015. As is the case with ISIS, however, Washington views both HTS and the PKK as terrorist organizations.
The Biden administration has acknowledged making multiple contacts with HTS since the group assumed control in Damascus. Asked whether HTS' label as a terrorist group may be reviewed or removed altogether, a U.S. State Department spokesperson told Newsweek that "we do not preview deliberations about terrorist designations or delistings."
The same response was provided regarding the U.S. view of the Turkestan Islamic Party. This largely Uyghur group is part of the rebel coalition that overthrew Assad and now threatens to renew its fight against China.
The Turkestan Islamic Party is linked to the former East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) that waged a violent campaign in China's northwestern province of Xinjiang until being met with a forceful crackdown a decade ago. The group seeks to establish an Islamist state known as "East Turkestan" in Xinjiang, where U.S. officials have long accused Beijing of widespread human rights abuses that the Chinese government has vehemently denied.
Chinese Embassy to the U.S. spokesperson Liu Pengyu recently told Newsweek that Beijing "stands ready to step up counterterrorism cooperation with members of the international community to firmly strike down on ETIM and keep the region and the world safe and stable."
Liu also asserted that Washington's decision to remove ETIM from its Terrorist Exclusion List under Trump in 2020 "has proven that it has politicized and weaponized counterterrorism issue," something "we firmly oppose."
China, which had forged close ties with Assad but did not play a military role in the conflict, has otherwise adopted a relatively cautious approach to the developments in Syria. Beijing's not alone, either.
Assad's military backers, Tehran and Moscow, are also leaving the door open for potential ties with Syria's new leadership despite palpable concern over how the upheaval could affect their regional influence. The two powers continue to coordinate directly with Ankara and are part of a trilateral peace process launched eight years ago.
Trump, meanwhile, said that he believes "Turkey is going to hold the key to Syria" during a December 16 press conference. As he prepares to once again face Erdogan as his counterpart, the U.S. president-elect referred to the two-decade Turkish leader as "somebody I got along great with."
A 2019 deal struck between Erdogan and Trump saw the U.S. pull its troops out of large stretches of northern Syria despite SDF protests. Trump had also advocated for withdrawing the entirety of the U.S. military presence in Syria, which at roughly 900 troops is dwarfed by Turkey's "major military force" nearby, as the president-elect recently remarked.
Trump's choice for national intelligence chief, former Hawaii Representative Tulsi Gabbard, has long called for a U.S. military exit from the country.
Yet she had broken with Trump in the past, notably meeting Assad in 2017, just months before Trump ordered the first direct U.S. military strikes against the Syrian government over its alleged use of chemical weapons and later inviting Syrian Democratic Council cochair Ilham Ahmed to Trump's 2019 State of the Union address as the U.S. leader planned to abandon posts jointly held with the SDF in northern Syria.
Gabbard has since stated that she stands in "full support" of Trump's desire not to get too deeply entangled in Syria's civil war.
As Assad's government entered its final hours, Trump warned on his Truth Social platform that "THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO" with the conflict as it "IS NOT OUR FIGHT."
Vice President-elect JD Vance soon reiterated this point and expressed skepticism over Golani and HTS' victory in a post on X, saying, "the last time this guy was celebrating events in Syria we saw the mass slaughter of Christians and a refugee crisis that destabilized Europe."
.png)
English (US) ·