Home prices are likely to fall in 31 metropolitan areas across Texas throughout 2025, according to a recent report by Norada Real Estate Investments. These include the capital, Austin, which is expected to see home prices fall by 1.8 percent by January 31 and by 0.4 percent by October 31.
The real estate investment firm expects the Texas housing market to experience a "moderate slowdown" over the next two years as it transitions from the strong growth of recent years toward "a more balanced market."
Why It Matters
Housing experts are looking at Texas as one of the housing markets in the country, together with Florida, most likely to experience significant price drops this year as demand cools down at the same time as new inventory comes in.
Both states have built a lot more housing than the rest of the nation in the past couple of years as they faced booming demand during the pandemic. As in-migration has slowed down significantly since the COVID-19 years, demand for housing has slowed down; at the same time, stubbornly high mortgage rates are keeping many buyers out of the market.
What To Know
By January 31, home prices are expected to fall in the following 51 Texas metro areas:
- Abilene, -0.1 percent
- Alice, -2.4 percent
- Amarillo, -0.2 percent
- Andrews, -0.3 percent
- Athens, -0.7 percent
- Austin, -1.8 percent
- Bay City, -0.3 percent
- Beaumont, -0.7 percent
- Beeville, -1.7 percent
- Big Spring, -3.7 percent
- Borger, -0.6 percent
- Brenham, -0.8 percent
- Brownsville, -0.2 percent
- Brownwood, -0.3 percent
- College Station, -0.4 percent
- Corpus Christi, -0.8 percent
- Dallas, -0.7 percent
- Eagle Pass, -0.2 percent
- El Campo, -1.1 percent
- Fredericksburg, -0.9 percent
- Houston, -0.6 percent
- Huntsville, -0.9 percent
- Kerrville, -0.4 percent
- Killeen, -0.9 percent
- Kingsville, -0.8 percent
- Lamesa, -0.7 percent
- Laredo, -0.5 percent
- Levelland, -0.8 percent
- Longview, -0.2 percent
- Lubbock, -1 percent
- Lufkin, -0.7 percent
- Mineral Wells, -0.2 percent
- Odessa, -0.6 percent
- Pampa, -1.1 percent
- Paris, -0.7 percent
- Pecos, -3.5 percent
- Plainview, -2 percent
- Port Lavaca, -0.4 percent
- Raymondville, -1.4 percent
- Rio Grande City, -1.4 percent
- San Antonio, -0.7 percent
- Sherman, -0.4 percent
- Snyder, -0.9 percent
- Sulphur Springs, -1.4 percent
- Sweetwater, -2.6 percent
- Texarkana, -0.8 percent
- Uvalde, -0.6 percent
- Vernon, -2.2 percent
- Victoria, -0.4 percent
- Waco, -0.5 percent
- Zapata, -2.6 percent
By October 31, Norada Real Estate Investments expects home prices to change in the following 31 Texas metro areas:
- Alice, -7.5 percent
- Andrews, -1.9 percent
- Austin, -0.4 percent
- Bay City, -0.8 percent
- Beaumont, -3.1 percent
- Beeville, -5.6 percent
- Big Spring, -8.1 percent
- Borger, -2.5 percent
- Corpus Christi, -1.4 percent
- Dumas, -1.4 percent
- El Campo, -2 percent
- Huntsville, -0.4 percent
- Kingsville, -1.9 percent
- Lamesa, -4.5 percent
- Laredo, -1 percent
- Levelland, -2.5 percent
- Midland, -1.9 percent
- Odessa, -3 percent
- Pampa, -2 percent
- Pecos, -9.5 percent
- Plainview, -3.3 percent
- Port Lavaca, -0.5 percent
- Raymondville, -6.1 percent
- Rio Grande City, -3.6 percent
- Snyder, -3 percent
- Sulphur Springs, -0.5 percent
- Sweetwater, -6.9 percent
- Texarkana, -0.9 percent
- Uvalde, -1.4 percent
- Vernon, -4.3 percent
- Zapata, -7.2 percent
What People Are Saying
Marco Santarelli of Norada Real Estate Investments wrote in the report: "The Texas housing market currently presents a mixed picture. While the third quarter ended on a positive note with an increase in home sales, other indicators are showing a bit of a slow-down after the superheated market of the past few years.
"I believe that the Texas housing market will see a more balanced, and somewhat slower growth trajectory over the next couple of years."
Redfin economist Chen Zhao previously told Newsweek: "Buyers in the weaker Sun Belt markets such as Florida and Texas may be able to negotiate the best deal and have the most selection [this year]. In other markets, inventory will be lower and there will be less room to negotiate."
Nick Gerli, real estate analyst and CEO of Reventure App, previously told Newsweek: "Reventure is forecasting home price declines in 2025 in Texas and Florida especially. Don't be surprised if price reductions cluster in suburban and rural areas, where the homebuilders are most active."
What's Next
Some areas in Texas, especially those which have seen the biggest booms during the pandemic years, are likely to become a buyer's market this year due to falling prices and growing supply.
Norada Real Estate Investments' Santarelli said that, despite potential price declines across many of its metro areas, the Lone Star State is unlikely to experience a housing market crash.
"While we are moving into a more balanced market, and some areas are expected to see minor price declines, the overall fundamentals of the Texas economy remain strong," he said. "The population growth, job market, and demand for housing all support a stable market, rather than a dramatic drop."
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