Chiefs vs. 49ers Odds, Best Bets: Niners Home 'Dogs in Super Bowl Rematch

Chiefs vs. 49ers Betting Preview

Kansas City Chiefs Betting News, Analysis

The Chiefs have not only gone undefeated to start their quest for a third straight Super Bowl, but somehow done so while looking out of sorts at times offensively.

The absence of WR Hollywood Brown, who underwent season-ending shoulder surgery, and serious injuries to RB Isiah Pacheco and WR Rashee Rice have contributed to this team's struggle to move the ball, but Mahomes and Co. have made the plays needed to knock off the Ravens, Bengals, Falcons, Chargers and Saints.

Kansas City is coming off arguably its best offensive showing of the year back in Week 5 against New Orleans, when it piled up 28 first downs and 460 yards in a game that wasn't as close as the 26-13 final score would indicate.

Defensively, the Chiefs have lived up to lofty preseason expectations after quietly fielding one of the best units in the league in 2023. DL Chris Jones remains a menace, and the franchise that managed to not skip a beat offensively when it let star WR Tyreek Hill walk in free agency has similarly weathered L'Jarius Sneed's recent move to Tennessee.

The Chiefs are sixth in the NFL in points allowed per game, and they've forced opposing teams to be one-dimensional by playing excellent run defense. New Orleans has a number of issues right now, but it's hard to lock up an NFL offense as thoroughly as K.C. shut down the Saints (NO gained just 220 yards of total offense).

San Francisco 49ers Betting News, Analysis

The 2024 season hasn't gone according to plan for the 49ers, but the underlying metrics -- and the oddsmakers (entering Week 7, San Francisco is the betting favorite to win the NFC) -- back this team as one of the league's best despite its surprising sub-.500 start.

The San Francisco offense isn't the same without star RB Christian McCaffrey, but this O is still capable of shredding opposing defenses as long as the rest of QB Brock Purdy's talented supporting cast is healthy. In Week 6, the Niners did whatever they wanted against banged up division rival Seattle.

They need to get to 4-3 with a win in this game, as their upcoming schedule after Week 7 includes the Cowboys, Buccaneers, Seahawks, Packers, Bills and Bears (four likely playoff teams and two other teams squarely in the mix for a playoff berth).

Outside of their Week 2 disappointment against Minnesota, the Niners' losses have been unlucky, if not fluky: they lost to Arizona after jumping out to a 23-10 lead in the first half, and they led the Rams 24-14 in the fourth quarter before a late collapse.

The Niners should be able to keep Sunday's game close against the team that beat them in both Super Bowl 54 and Super Bowl 58, but they'll need a massive game from Brock Purdy, as they'll be without not only McCaffrey, but also WR Jauan Jennings. CMC's talented backup, Jordan Mason (shoulder), is listed as questionable but is expected to start this game, and star WR Deebo Samuel (wrist) is also expected to play.

The Niners have been solid offensively against every opponent this year except Minnesota in Week 2, but the Chiefs are the best defensive team Purdy and Co. have seen since the loss to the Vikings.

Chiefs vs. 49ers Prediction, Best Bets

This is a difficult game to handicap, because the spread does not match what these teams have produced on the field this year. San Francisco laying two points vs. the undefeated reigning champs despite being 3-3 doesn't smell quite right. Typically, when lines aren't where most of us think they should be, we should proceed with caution.

I can't shake the feeling that Kansas City will shut down Mason and the running game and improve to 6-0 with a low-scoring win, but pulling the trigger on the road underdogs feels like a bold swing.

This is the rare case where we're going to stay away from the spread, as thing we feel most confident in is the under given that the Chiefs' last three games have all gone under 40 points thanks to their stout D and ball control offense.

As a second play, consider the under on the 49ers team total. We can see San Francisco winning this one thanks to its D. But against a KC defense that has allowed a total of 40 points in the last three games, we don't expect the Niners to light up the scoreboard.

Chiefs vs. 49ers Best Bets

• Under 47.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
• 49ers Team Total Under 23.5 (+104 at FD)

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