New polls released Tuesday by Morning Consult and Reuters/Ipsos show no change in the presidential contest. Former President Donald Trump remains 4 and 3 percentage points behind Vice President Kamala Harris, respectively, in both surveys.
Morning Consult found Trump had 46 percent support to Harris' 50 percent—consistent with last week's result—while Reuters/Ipsos showed Trump and Harris both up 1 percent from their survey a week ago, at 43 percent and 46 percent, respectively. Last week, Reuters/Ipsos had Trump at 42 percent and Harris at 45 percent.
"Numbers have been stable and they show a plus-4 advantage still," Rachel Bitecofer, an election forecaster turned political strategist who correctly predicted the "blue wave" in the 2018 midterms and then President Joe Biden's win in 2020, told Newsweek. "There's no movement."
But some believe there is still room for Trump to move up.
Doug Gordon, a Democratic strategist and co-CEO of UpShift Strategies, told Newsweek that with all the available poll results still within the margin of error—and a race this close—those numbers don't tell us much about what will happen on November 5.
"The race is a toss-up today. It will remain a toss-up through Election Day," he said. "If low-propensity voters show up, Trump could outperform his 2020 numbers. But if the anti-MAGA coalition shows up in the numbers it has in 2018, 2020 and 2022, it won't matter if Trump beats his 2020 numbers."
Instead of looking at the polls, Gordon said, there may be clearer signs in Trump's and Harris' get-out-the-vote efforts in these last weeks. Republican consultant Matt Klink, on the other hand, told Newsweek that the answer could lie in swing state polling.
Swing State Polling
Klink, who said Trump is "surging" in key swing states, called national polls "meaningless" and predicted that liberal voters in major U.S. cities would ensure that Harris wins the popular vote. He said another indication that the political tides are shifting toward Trump is the change in campaign strategy by vulnerable Democrats like Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey, who has distanced himself from Biden and highlighted his support for Trump's policies in a new campaign ad.
Spiro Amburn, a GOP strategist and senior vice president at Georgia-based McGuireWoods Consulting, agreed that changes in swing state polling are more important to watch than those in national polling. He told Newsweek that while Trump's momentum hasn't yet stalled in the Peach State, "a ceiling does exist."
Georgia
In Georgia, Trump has made some gains in the last few weeks. A Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll conducted between October 16 and 18 showed him 1 point ahead. The pollster's surveys from earlier this month and late September showed Trump and Harris locked in a tie. An AtlasIntel poll, conducted between October 12 and 17, also found Trump up a point in Georgia and leading by 2 points this month, compared with its poll from last month that showed the former president with a 1-point advantage.
"There is a small percentage of undecided voters," Amburn said. "The question is whether Republican voters who did not vote for Trump in 2020 will show up for him this time. This could be the difference in winning or losing by a percentage point. Harris seems to have momentum with new voters."
Other Swing States With Slight Momentum
Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada all appear to be seeing some shifts in their battleground polls.
Both Redfield & Wilton Strategies and New York Times/Siena College show in their polling Trump gaining 1 point over Harris in Arizona between last month and this month. An AtlasIntel survey, however, showed Trump losing a point.
Trump has made significant inroads in Michigan, according to polls from RMG Research and InsiderAdvantage. After finding Harris with an 8-point lead late last month, RMG saw a tied race in its October poll. InsiderAdvantage had Trump up 1 point last month but 2 points this month. AtlasIntel saw no change, with Trump leading in Michigan by 3 points in both September and October.
AtlasIntel did see a change in Wisconsin, however. Last month, the pollster found Trump leading by 2 points but Harris with the advantage this month, leading by 1 point. Emerson College's polling showed Trump down by 1 point this month after his 2-point lead last month.
Things appear to be shifting in Nevada, although it's unclear in whose favor, polls from InsiderAdvantage and AtlasIntel show. InsiderAdvantage's October poll found Harris tying the race a month after Trump had a 1-point lead, while AtlasIntel's October poll showed an even race after Harris had a 3-point lead last month.
Harris had a steady 4-point advantage, though, in Morning Consult's October and September polls.
Swing States That Have Stalled
Polling in Pennsylvania and North Carolina shows a stagnant presidential race.
AtlasIntel's October and September polls showed a 3-point lead for Trump in Pennsylvania, while Redfield & Wilton Strategies found an even race in both mid-October and late September.
In North Carolina, AtlasIntel shows Harris with a steady 2-point lead, while The Washington Post has Trump with a steady 3-point lead. A Quinnipiac University poll, however, found Harris taking the lead away from Trump. While Trump was up 1 point in late September, the pollsters found Harris up 3 points earlier this month.
The Case for National Polling
Political consultant Jay Townsend told Newsweek that in an election this competitive, polling can sometimes be outdated by the time the results are collected, tabulated and released. But he added that pollsters have "long known that Trump has a low ceiling because his unfavorables are well over 50 percent."
"Thus, the only way he can win an election against an opponent is to drive up their unfavorables to a level that exceeds his. Hard for him to do when he is being outspent," Townsend said.
He also disagreed with the idea that national polls don't matter, arguing that they show trends for the race.
"While there is a debate about how much of a national cushion Harris needs to prevail in the swing states, there is a consensus that a 4-point lead nationally would portend an Electoral College victory," Townsend said. "Still a long way to go before Election Day, but this is good news for Harris, and she is in a better position than Trump."
Bitecofer said that "the race has not changed since the switch in July [from Biden] to Harris."
"It's been a toss-up in the swing states. It's within a few points nationally, but those points advantage Harris. It's going to be a very close election. We're talking about tens of thousands of votes are going to separate them in the swing states," she said.
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