Russian Submarines Flee the Mediterranean Sea

Russia reportedly no longer has a submarine based in the Mediterranean Sea, after the Novorossiysk vessel was observed withdrawing into the Atlantic Ocean.

NATO said that the Portuguese Navy had observed the vessel, which had been based in Russia's naval base in Syria, passing waters near Portugal. Naval News reported that the move signaled there were now "no Russian submarines in the Mediterranean."

Newsweek has contacted the Russian defense ministry for comment by email.

NATO Maritime Command shared these pictures, announcing NATO allies from the Portuguese Navy, NRP Álvares Cabral and NRP Setúbal, had monitored the Russian submarine Novorossiysk and the Large Landing Ship (LLT) Alexander Shabalin pass through... NATO Maritime Command

Why It's Important

Russia, which is continuing its invasion of Ukraine, now has no known submarines in the Mediterranean, a strategically important waterway.

Syria's port city of Tartus gave Russia a naval base in the Mediterranean for more than five decades but the downfall of Bashar al-Assad to rebels led by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, has upended the future of its military in the region.

Moscow has been trying to hang onto its military assets in Syria but since Assad's overthrow, Russian assets have departed, weakening Russia's presence in the region.

What to Know

Open source intelligence X account OSINT technical was among outlets reporting on Sunday that the Russian Kilo-class submarine Novorossiysk (B-61) had left the Mediterranean, after retreating from Syria.

"The withdrawal leaves Russia with no permanent sub based in the Mediterranean," it said, next to an image of the vessel through the sight of the Portuguese frigate NRP Álvares Cabral.

NATO Maritime Command said in a statement on Sunday that the Portuguese Navy, NRP Álvares Cabral and NRP Setúbal, monitored the submarine and the Large Landing Ship (LLT) Alexander Shabalin as they passed through waters near Portugal.

"The Alliance is watching and we are vigilant!" added the NATO post.

Naval News reported that the vessel had left Syria in the early hours of January 2 and while it is possible that there is a nuclear powered submarine there, "we consider this unlikely."

Novorossiysk and all of Russia's Naval Task Group (TG) never returned to Tartus after naval exercises on December 3.

This illustrative image from September 26, 2019 shows Russian submarines at the Russian naval base in the Syrian Mediterranean port of Tartus. MAXIME POPOV/Getty Images

What People Are Saying

NATO Maritime Command said on Sunday that Portugal's navy had "monitored the Russian submarine Novorossiysk and the Large Landing Ship (LLT) Alexander Shabalin as the ships passed through waters near Portugal."

X account OSINT technical: "The Russian Kilo-class submarine Novorossiysk (B-61) has left the Mediterranean, retreating from Syria. The withdrawal leaves Russia with no permanent sub based in the Mediterranean."

What's Next

Moscow may seek to replace it Syrian base Tartus, a key part of Moscow's influence in the Middle East and Africa, with another base or negotiate a deal with the new Syrian government to retain the existing site but there are no signs of this yet.

Yörük Işık, head of the Istanbul-based Bosphorus Observer consultancy, told Newsweek last month Moscow may look to other countries that give it a Mediterranean foothold, such as Algeria, Tunisia or Libya.

"The loss of this base will also cut or hinder all its operations in Africa and to a certain extent in the Caribbean," he said, and more importantly, it will put its influence in the Mediterranean "in question."

Naval News reported that Novorossiysk's replacement, if there is to be one, is still in the North Sea awaiting transit south to the Mediterranean.

"This improved-Kilo class boat, believed to be Krasnodar (B-265), but possibly Mozhaisk (B-608), was observed leaving the Baltic on December 31, 2024," the outlet said, although there has been a delay in its transit, possibly due to maintenance issues with it or one of its escorts.

However, it said that the Russian Navy as being at its its weakest in the region since before Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine.