Russian forces have been advancing far more quickly in Donetsk region in recent weeks than they did for the whole of last year, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), whose map shows the state of play on the front line.
The Washington, D.C., think tank said on Sunday that recent Russian gains near Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka showed that the war "is not stalemated" and the Donetsk region is "becoming increasingly fluid" with the latest Russian advances. Newsweek has emailed the Russian and Ukrainian defense ministries for comment.
Russian forces have seized settlements northeast of Vuhledar and advanced north of the town they had captured in October, according to Ukrainian sources and geolocated footage. The latest ISW map shows these advances as well as the capture on Saturday of Yekaterinovka, Elizavetovka and Ilyinka.
The think tank said that Russian forces have gained at least 425 square miles since September 1, more than three times the 149 square miles captured during 2023.
This was because Moscow's forces have exploited vulnerabilities in Ukraine's lines and taken advantage of Vuhledar's seizure for further offensive operations.
While Russia's advances are incremental, Zev Faintuch, head of research and intelligence at security firm Global Guardian, told Newsweek, when added together, they add up to "some real tangible gains," especially when combined with reports of Ukraine's personnel shortages.
"Those gains are really pushing momentum," Faintuch said.
"You pair this accumulation of these incremental gains along with (Ukraine's) manpower shortages that we know exist and you are starting to see the picture change a lot," he said. "I thought that Pokrovsk was going to fall a while ago and I still believe that," he added. "They're now moving to envelop it."
Faintuch said, regarding Ukraine's fight, "the picture is definitely somewhat bleak. I don't want to be sensationalist or react too much to the gains in the last month, but it's not a great story on the front right now."
The Ukrainian Telegram channel DeepState, which maps front line developments, said Monday that the Russian army had made "significant advances" all at one in the directions of Kurakhove as well as toward the logistics hub of Pokrovsk. There were also advances in the Kupiansk direction.
These advances present Russian forces with three possible courses of action for the upcoming winter, the ISW said, the first of which could be further advances southwest, east, and northeast of Velyka Novosilka to envelop the settlement from its flanks.
Another possibility would be to push to Andriivka from the south in support of Russian efforts to close the Ukrainian pockets near Kurakhove and level the front line.
Russian forces could also advance west and southwest from Selydove in the direction of Andriivka to collapse the Ukrainian pocket north of Kurakhove and threaten Ukrainian exit routes, according to the think tank.
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