2025 Oscars: Best Actor Predictions

Nominations voting is from January 8-12, 2025, with official Oscar nominations announced January 17, 2025. Final voting is February 11-18, 2025. And finally, the 97th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 2 and air live on ABC at 7:00 p.m. ET/ 4:00 p.m. PT. We update our picks through awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2025 Oscar predictions.

The State of the Race

The past couple of years, the Best Actor Oscar race has been rigid to the point of there typically only being room for one surprise nominee to gain momentum in the back half of awards season. Though few nominations have been released, 2024 is shaping up to be no different, with prognosticators really having to stretch to create a list longer than 10 names who have a shot at a nod, if that.

What most people have been waiting to see is how voters will respond to Timothée Chalamet in “A Complete Unknown” and Paul Mescal in “Gladiator II,” as both films screened for the first time after festivals like Venice and Toronto had wrapped. Both young stars already have one Best Actor nomination under their belt, and the roles they play also have a history with being recognized by the Oscars. More so on Mescal’s part, as the first “Gladiator” not just won Best Picture, but earned lead Russell Crowe the Best Actor Oscar as well. Meanwhile, Chalamet as Bob Dylan really only comes up against Todd Haynes’ influential indie “I’m Not There,” which still got Cate Blanchett an Oscar nomination for playing the music icon in one of the film’s vignettes.

While there are plenty of people who had predicted both of them getting Best Actor nominations sight unseen, there really is only room for Chalamet, who quite nimbly balances playing a well-known figure with making the role his own. For someone as singular as Dylan, the success of the film hinges on the lead actor’s portrayal not feeling like a laughingstock, and while this is still an early call, Chalamet nails it enough to where a nomination slot feels even more secure for him than for some of the other contenders that have had much longer to campaign. 

Unfortunately for Mescal, many of the criticisms of “Gladiator II” stem from how his character was written, and how he was directed. Having just won an award from the Academy Museum, the Irish actor is certainly a favorite to be nominated again soon, but this particular collaboration with Ridley Scott does not seem to be his ticket toward that achievement.

While “The Brutalist” star Adrien Brody, “Conclave” star Ralph Fiennes, and “Sing Sing” star Colman Domingo all seem pegged for Best Actor nominations throughout the season (all three have been nominated before, with Brody having won the Oscar,) the last contentious nomination slot to cover would be between “Queer” star Daniel Craig and “A Real Pain” star Jesse Eisenberg. Though the latter actor has been building a lot of momentum, he also serves as the film’s writer and director, meaning that he will have more the opportunity to be nominated for more than just this category. Meanwhile, Craig, who has never been nominated for an Oscar, only has a shot here.

Though “A Real Pain” has been getting a better response than “Queer” on the circuit, Oscar nominations are determined by the specific branch represented, so there is a strong argument that Craig would be the one to secure the nomination, as actors respond well, and are even inspired by the big swings the former James Bond takes in the Luca Guadagnino film, and skip over Eisenberg, who is already a Best Original Screenplay frontrunner.

Contenders are listed in alphabetical order, below. No actor will be deemed a frontrunner until I have seen the film.

Frontrunners:
Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”)
Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”)
Daniel Craig (“Queer”)
Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”)
Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”)

Contenders:
Jesse Eisenberg (“A Real Pain”)
Hugh Grant (“Heretic”)
Ethan Herisse (“Nickel Boys”)
André Holland (“Exhibiting Forgiveness”)
Jharrel Jerome (“Unstoppable”)
Paul Mescal (“Gladiator II”)
Sebastian Stan (“A Different Man”)
Sebastian Stan (“The Apprentice”)
John David Washington (“The Piano Lesson”)
Missagh Zareh (“The Seed of the Sacred Fig”)